Forex Market: USD/NOK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/NOK traded within the range of 5.9791-6.0171 and closed at 6.0061.

At 6.23 GMT today USD/NOK was gaining 0.03% for the day to trade at 6.0118. The pair touched a daily high at 6.0166 at 6:13 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Employment in United States’ private sector probably increased by 208 000 during April, following another job gain of 191 000 in the previous month. The report by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) is based on data, encompassing about 400 000 out of 500 000 business entities with over 24 million employees engaged in 19 major sectors of the economy in accordance with North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). It usually comes out two days before the official employment report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), thus, providing clues over the tendency in nation’s non-farming sector. In case employment increases more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The report is expected at 12:15 GMT.

In addition, United States’ flash (preliminary) annualized Gross Domestic Product probably expanded 1.1% during the first quarter of 2014, according to the median estimate by experts. The final GDP for Q4, announced on March 27th, was 2.6%.
This is the widest indicator for nation’s economic activity. A larger than expected increase in the GDP figure would boost demand for the US dollar. The official result is to be released at 12:30 GMT.

Norway

Retail Sales in Norway probably inched up 0.1% in March, following a 0.6% gain in the previous month.

Retail trade is defined as trade of goods, which are intended for use by private households or individual users. This category includes sales of motor vehicles, along with motorcycles for personal use, as well as their fuel supply through intermediaries to end users. Retail sales also include office equipment and technology, paint, wood , etc., if they are sold directly to end users. The index is based on a sample of over 13 200 units of the VAT register of the country, covering one quarter of all companies in the sector. This is the percentage change compared to the previous month.

Statistics Norway is scheduled to release an official report at 8:00 GMT. A larger-than-expected jump in retail sales, would certainly provide support to the Norwegian krona.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 6.0224, it will probably continue up to test 6.0388. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 6.0604.

If USD/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 5.9844, it will probably continue to slide and test 5.9628. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 5.9464.