Natural gas trading outlook: futures gain on cold weather over the US; rising supplies offset big gains

Natural gas futures rose during early European hours today, as cooler weather gripped the United States, the worlds biggest consumer. Forecasts are temperatures will remain below average for this time of year, boosting prices for the heating fuel. Meanwhile, the weekly report on natural gas storage levels in the US is due later today, with expectations of increasing supplies capping any significant gains.

Natural gas futures for settlement in June added 0.61% on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, to trade for $4.776 per million British thermal units at 10:00 GMT. Early hours today also registered the highest natural gas price since winter at $4.815 per mBtu. Yesterday futures slightly dropped by 0.23%, after more than a 4.5% gain during the previous 4 sessions, amid cooler weather and slowly recovering supplies.

Natgasweather.com reported that the Northeast and Great Lakes areas will be experiencing below-normal temperatures today and the coming days, while the southern and central states will be warming-up, before a larger cool system drags readings down for most of the central and eastern US during the weekend and into next week. The West will also see a decrease in temperatures, as Pacific storms move inland. Overall, the weather in the following days will buff bullish outlooks on natural gas, as readings remain at below-normal to normal.

AccuWeather.com reported that today, April 24th, will be chilly for New York with temperatures dropping to as little as 43 degrees Fahrenheit, 5 below average, before an expected warming for the weekend and into next week, though temps will remain 2-3 degrees below-average. Boston is set for a slightly cooler-than-normal day, with readings between 40 and 61. Tomorrow will bring a warm-up, before a colder Saturday, with 5-below average temperatures. Los Angeles will see slightly warmer than average weather today, before a medium cool-down through Friday and the weekend, when readings might drop as low as 54.

US inventories

Later today the Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on natural gas supplies in the US. Forecasts put the gain at 44 billion cubic feet, up from last weeks 24 bcf rise, climbing to 894 bcf. The proposed increase boosts bearish sentiment for natural gas. However, although improving, the figure is still 51.9% below the 5-year average and 47.4% behind readings from a year ago.

The previous report induced a major shift in the market, as natural gas rallied on better-than-expected demand. The government agency reported that US natural gas inventories rose by 24 billion cubic feet in the seven days through April 11th, compared to analysts’ forecasts for a 34-bcf jump, bumping prices 4.51%.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case natural gas for settlement in June penetrates the first resistance level at $4.771 per million British thermal units, it will encounter next resistance at $4.813. If breached, upside movement will probably attempt to advance to $4.840 per mBtu.

If the energy source drops below its first resistance level at $4.702 per mBtu, it will see support at $4.675. If the second key support zone is breached, the power-station fuel’s downward movement may extend to $4.633 per mBtu.