Forex Market: USD/BRL daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/BRL traded within the range of 2.1934-2.2196 and closed at 2.2018.

At 7:35 GMT today USD/BRL was gaining 0.03% for the day to trade at 2.2016. The pair touched a daily high at 2.2019 at 4:25 GMT.

Fundamental view

The annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) in Brazil probably climbed to 6.08% in March, according to the median estimate by experts, from 5.68% in February. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. In case the CPI rose more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on Brazils real. Instituto Brasiliero de Geografia e Estatistica is expected to release the official data at 12:00 GMT.

At 18:00 GMT the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its meeting on policy held on March 18th-19th. The minutes offer detailed insights on FOMCs monetary policy stance. This release is closely examined by traders, as it may provide clues over interest rate decisions in the future. High volatility is usually present after the publication.

At 19:30 GMT Fed President for Chicago Charles Evans is expected to take a statement. He was a FOMC voting member in September – December 2007, 2009 and 2011. Statements by FOMC members attract investors attention, as they may offer clues over the possible direction of monetary policy in the future. Evanss remarks may indicate a positive or negative trend in a short term.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/BRL manages to breach the first resistance level at 2.2165, it will probably continue up to test 2.2311. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 2.2427.

If USD/BRL manages to breach the first key support at 2.1903, it will probably continue to slide and test 2.1787. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 2.1641.