Big winners of 2013 score huge market bets

In the past year a few brave investors scored huge, market-beating wins. That includes a trader who made more than $100 million from a $10 million bet against gold. A hedge fund that gained 42% after a bullish wager on stocks. A firm that saw returns of 48% thanks in part to soaring Japanese stocks.

These were among the winning investors who managed to bring home huge gains forecasting a handful of key shifts in a year that scared many market gurus. Many of the most lucrative moves required going against the prevailing wisdom, while others relied on bold calls about the impact government policy makers would have on share prices.

Gold

Chris Tuohy, a senior trader in the London office of Tudor Investment Corp., a $14 billion hedge-fund firm, was one of the few to profit from a sharp drop in the price of gold. Early last year, Mr. Tuohy began buying gold “puts,” or options contracts that pay off if an investment falls in price, according to people close to the firm, even as many gold strategists were bullish on the precious metal.

As investors began dumping gold-related investments in the spring, Mr. Touhys profits piled up. Paul Tudor Jones, Tudors founder, also wagered against gold, the people said, though he didnt make as big a bet as Mr. Tuohys. Mr. Tuohy scored gains of more than $100 million for Tudor in 2013, from an initial investment of less than $10 million, according to people close to the firm, Wall Street Journal informed.

US Stocks

Most hedge-fund managers and Wall Street strategists were just as surprised by the strength of the stock-market rally through most of 2013 as they were by the plunge in gold. However, some of them played it right. In early September, as stocks dropped more than 5% over the previous month, David Tepper who runs Appaloosa Management LP turned more bullish, despite widespread concerns about rising interest rates. Mr. Tepper, began buying “calls,” or options that pay off when the market rises. He felt these bullish positions were inexpensive relative to the cost of options that bet on a drop in the market. The market climbed during the last four months of the year, and the firms biggest hedge fund rose about 42% in 2013, after fees, likely earning several billion in profits for Mr. Tepper and his investors.

Japan

Japan was the source of some of the biggest gains for many traders. In late 2012, Jeffrey Altman and his team at $4 billion hedge fund Owl Creek Asset Management LP became convinced the Japanese government and central bank would take aggressive measures to boost the economy, predicting what the Japanese government later began making. He also expected more Japanese companies to take steps to improve shareholder returns. Owl Creek became one of the largest holders of Japan Airlines Co. and took big stakes in other Japanese companies, according to people close to the firm, Wall Street Journal said. Partly as a result, Owl Creek soared about 48% in 2013, after fees.

Euro

The euros strength was perhaps the biggest surprise of all in currency markets in 2013. Investors held huge “short” euro positions, or bets on the currencys decline, at the beginning of the year. Only four big banks anticipated in early 2013 that the euro would appreciate by the end of the year, as the regions crisis was expected to continue.

But Axel Merk, who runs the $415 million Merk Investments LLC, maintained a bullish position throughout the year, according to fund documents, even when the common currency sunk close to $1.27 in April and May. He argued that European stocks and peripheral euro-zone debt were cheap enough to attract investors, which would help strengthen the currency.