Key Moments
- WTI futures on NYMEX trade near $99.80, down 2.25%, extending a pullback from Friday’s $104.03 five-month peak.
- Signals from Washington and Tehran that diplomatic channels remain open reduce fears of prolonged supply disruption.
- WTI holds below the 9-day EMA at $100.09, keeping the near-term technical bias mildly bearish despite positive momentum signals.
Market Overview
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude continues to retreat, slipping back below the $100 mark as concerns about a potential resumption of United States military action against Iran have eased.
During European trading on Monday, WTI futures on the NYMEX are down 2.25% and trading close to $99.80. The contract is extending the corrective move that began after it failed to sustain gains above $104.03, the five-month high reached on Friday.
The pullback reflects a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium after fresh indications that the United States is prioritizing diplomacy with Iran, easing worries over prolonged disruptions to energy supply.
Geopolitics and Supply Risk
Over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington has not decided to restart strikes on Tehran and that President Donald Trump prefers a diplomatic path. At the same time, Rubio kept the possibility of military action on the table, remarking that the United States maintains the capacity to achieve any military goal the president may choose.
On the Iranian side, comments indicating that discussions are continuing with Qatari intermediaries over a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the United States cooperates have further reduced supply concerns, according to Al Jazeera.
Meanwhile, the recent slide in oil prices suggests that market participants are discounting claims made by US media personality and political commentator Tucker Carlson. He alleged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is urging US President Donald Trump to carry out a nuclear strike on Iran and that a decision on the use of nuclear weapons could come within days, The Times of India reported.
Price Action and Technical Picture
On the daily chart, WTI US Oil is trading below $100, just under the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $100.09. This short-term EMA is currently capping the upside and keeping the immediate technical bias mildly bearish, even after the strong advance from the mid-$80s area.
The fact that prices are holding beneath this near-term EMA indicates that bullish momentum is waning. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering around 58, remaining in positive territory and pointing to an underlying constructive tone that has not yet produced a decisive break above nearby resistance.
| Technical Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Five-month high | $104.03 | Key resistance |
| 9-day EMA | $100.09 | Near-term cap |
| Spot area (European trade) | Near $99.80 | Current trading zone |
| October 20 low | $95.05 | Key support |
On the upside, the five-month peak at $104.03 remains the key barrier that bulls need to clear to reassert control. On the downside, the October 20 trough at $95.05 is highlighted as an important support level that could attract buying interest if the correction deepens.
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