Key Moments
- Final Polish inflation was revised up to 4.1% from a 4.0% flash estimate, while the core inflation forecast remains at 3.1%.
- Most Monetary Policy Committee members are indicating December as the earliest point to begin discussing interest-rate increases.
- ING continues to project EUR/PLN moving back into the 4.380-4.400 band as delayed NBP tightening, a stronger Dollar and record gas prices weigh on the Zloty.
NBP Timing Signals Keep Policy Outlook Dovish
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky points to a modest upward revision in final Polish inflation alongside an unchanged core inflation forecast, and notes that the bulk of National Bank of Poland (NBP) Monetary Policy Committee members are guiding that December is the earliest point for rate-hike talks. In his view, the combination of delayed monetary tightening, a firmer Dollar and elevated energy prices leaves the Zloty exposed, leading him to reaffirm expectations that EUR/PLN will move back to the 4.380-4.400 area.
Inflation Data and Core Forecasts
“Final Polish inflation was revised slightly higher to 4.1% from the 4.0% September flash estimate. Our core inflation forecast is unchanged at 3.1%, down from 3.3%, with today’s release expected to confirm the figure.”
MPC Communication and Rate-Hike Discussion Window
“Since the October National Bank of Poland meeting, nearly all Monetary Policy Committee members have spoken, offering mixed signals. Most have sounded somewhat more hawkish than Governor Adam Glapinski, but the majority see December – not November – as the earliest for discussing a rate hike.”
“All agree that the new forecast and pace of disinflation next year will be decisive. Detailed interviews have also focused on government measures to cap household fuel prices. Approved only through year-end, these measures reduce headline inflation by 0.6-0.7pp.”
Fuel Price Measures and Policy Implications
“We can assume these measures can be extended into Q1 if needed, with the Ministry of Finance indicating that a decision will come in December. This should allow the NBP to delay tightening further. Our economists still expect hikes to begin in Q1 next year, with 50bp of tightening in total.”
External Backdrop: Dollar Strength and Risk Sentiment
“Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US core CPI halted gains in CEE currencies and pushed sentiment back into risk-off mode. Our bearish CEE FX view remains unchanged: a firmer US dollar and record-high gas prices will make it difficult for regional currencies to sustain gains.”
FX Outlook for the Zloty
“The PLN looks particularly vulnerable given the NBP’s dovish stance relative to market pricing. We therefore continue to expect EUR/PLN to return to the 4.380-4.400 range.”
Key Metrics and Policy Expectations
| Indicator / View | Detail |
|---|---|
| Final headline inflation | 4.1% (revised from 4.0% September flash) |
| Core inflation forecast | 3.1%, down from 3.3% |
| Impact of fuel price cap | Reduces headline inflation by 0.6-0.7pp |
| Timing to discuss rate hikes | Most MPC members see December as earliest |
| Expected start of hikes (ING view) | Q1 next year, with 50bp total tightening |
| EUR/PLN projection | Return to the 4.380-4.400 range |
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