Key Moments
- WTI trades around the $89.30-$89.35 area during the Asian session, rising more than 1.0% on the day but still stuck in a recent range.
- Heightened Middle East tensions and weather risks in the Gulf Coast support prices, while easing supply concerns limit further upside.
- WTI remains capped below the 200-period EMA at $89.89 on the 4-hour chart, with multiple Fibonacci levels defining near-term support and resistance.
WTI Firms in Asia, But Range-Bound Trade Persists
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil contract, attracts fresh buying interest during the Asian session on Thursday. The contract is quoted in the $89.30-$89.35 band, showing a gain of more than 1.0% on the day. Despite the advance, prices continue to trade within a multi-day consolidation zone, prompting caution among traders looking for a sustained rebound from the one-month low reached on Tuesday.
Geopolitical Tensions and Weather Risks Support Prices
Elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to underpin crude prices by maintaining a risk premium in the market. The Pentagon instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM) several days ago to complete preparations to restart major combat operations in Iran, as US President Donald Trump evaluates a specific date for potential strikes. According to US and Israeli sources, such action could occur before the US midterm elections and possibly before the Israeli elections scheduled a week earlier.
At the same time, Iran has stepped up attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Intensifying clashes between Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia provide an additional tailwind for oil. An incoming storm in the Gulf Coast region is also seen as a risk for key US energy production and refining infrastructure, reinforcing the constructive tone in crude.
However, signs of easing supply concerns are discouraging more aggressive long positioning and are capping meaningful upside in WTI despite these supportive factors.
Technical Picture: Key Levels Define the Trading Range
From a technical standpoint, WTI retains a restrained tone below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is marginally positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates near the 50 mark, pointing to only mild bullish momentum that has yet to clear nearby supply zones.
This configuration suggests that the 200-period EMA at $89.89 continues to represent the immediate upside barrier. Beyond that, a more robust resistance level is seen at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $93.95. A decisive move above this latter level would be required to alleviate the prevailing bearish bias on the four-hour timeframe.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $88.82. Below there, a more substantial base emerges near the 50.0% retracement around $84.67. If selling pressure intensifies, additional Fibonacci-based support areas are identified at $80.52, $74.61 and $67.08.
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate resistance | 200-period EMA (4-hour) | $89.89 |
| Key resistance | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement | $93.95 |
| Initial support | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | $88.82 |
| Major support | 50.0% Fibonacci retracement | $84.67 |
| Additional support | Fibonacci retracement | $80.52 |
| Additional support | Fibonacci retracement | $74.61 |
| Additional support | Fibonacci retracement | $67.08 |
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