Key Moments
- HelloFresh shares dropped as much as 14.5% after the company issued its second profit warning of the year.
- The group cut its 2026 revenue outlook to a 9%-11% decline in constant currency and lowered adjusted EBITDA guidance to €350 million-€370 million.
- Stifel maintained a “sell” rating and a €3 price target, citing continued risks to profitability and free cash flow.
Guidance Cut Sparks Steep Share Price Reaction
HelloFresh shares fell as much as 14.5% on Friday after the German meal-kit provider delivered its second profit warning of the year. The move prompted renewed scrutiny from analysts, who pointed to concerns about management’s execution after a sharper-than-anticipated reduction in marketing spending undermined customer acquisition.
Late Thursday, the company revised its 2026 revenue guidance to a decline of 9%-11% in constant currency, compared with a previous expected drop of 3%-6%. The new range also came in below consensus expectations for a 6.9% fall.
At the same time, HelloFresh narrowed its adjusted EBITDA outlook to between €350 million and €370 million, down from a prior range of €375 million-€425 million.
Marketing Pullback Weighs on Growth
HelloFresh attributed the downgrade primarily to a greater-than-planned reduction in third-quarter marketing expenditure. The tighter spending weighed on new-customer acquisition during the key back-to-school season, a period the company highlighted as particularly important for its business.
According to Stifel analyst Clément Genelot, the magnitude of the marketing cut intensifies concerns around the group’s ability to carry out its recovery strategy. He noted that the back-to-school effort was intended as a crucial test of HelloFresh’s execution, and the weaker outcome has raised questions regarding the effectiveness of its marketing channels, customer targeting, and messaging across both its meal-kit and ready-to-eat offerings.
Updated Outlook for the Third Quarter
For the third quarter, HelloFresh now expects revenue to decline by 11%-12% in constant currency. This compares with market expectations for a 6.8% drop.
The company forecast adjusted EBITDA for the period in a range of €45 million-€55 million, below the consensus estimate of €57 million.
| Metric | New Guidance / Expectation | Previous / Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Revenue Outlook (constant currency) | 9%-11% decline | 3%-6% decline (previous); 6.9% decline (consensus) |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | €350 million-€370 million | €375 million-€425 million (previous) |
| Q3 Revenue (constant currency) | 11%-12% decline | 6.8% decline (consensus) |
| Q3 Adjusted EBITDA | €45 million-€55 million | €57 million (consensus) |
Stifel Maintains “Sell” Rating and Targets €3
Genelot at Stifel reiterated his “sell” recommendation on the stock and kept his €3 price target unchanged. He pointed to ongoing downside risks for profitability and free cash flow, emphasizing the lack of clear evidence of commercial stabilization.
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