Grains trading outlook: corn, wheat futures add, beans drop as multi-year lows reached

Corn and wheat futures edged higher during early trade in Europe today, while soybeans continued downwards, with all grains hovering near four-year lows, as investors priced in the record harvest in the US.

Weather patterns project mostly favorable conditions for maturing crops early this week, with dry and warm weather over the Midwest and Norther plains. However, by the weekend, a cool Canadian system is due to track into the northern US, possibly dragging temps down to threaten frost damage, in addition to more rains and storms.

NASS logged corn crops’ condition remained quite impressive as of September 21st, logging 74% in good or excellent condition, well above the 55% of the same week last year. Also, 42% of corn had matured and harvesting had begun, as investors look to collect the biggest harvest on record, with some 14.395 billion bushels. Many analysts and farmers expect “massive piles” of corn laying on the ground, as inventory room looks insufficient.

Corn futures for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) stood at $3.244 per bushel at 8:15 GMT, up 0.46% for the day, after reaching a five-year low at $3.220 earlier. Corn is down some 27% this year.

Now investors eye NASS report for the week through September 28th, due later today.

Soybeans, wheat

Soybeans futures for November were at $9.060 per bushel, down 0.47%, though it earlier reached the lowest price in more than four years at $9.054. Beans are down about 30% this year.

Soybeans declined on “news that China was set to suspend imports of genetically modified product and an ever improving yield forecast for the U.S. crop,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a report cited by Bloomberg.

The suspended import approval process could hardly impact trade, however, as the two beans strains in question are not grown commercially.

Last week NASS reported 72% of soybeans in good or excellent shape, with the harvest started, set to also log the biggest crop on record at some 3.913bn bushels. Meanwhile, spring wheat harvest was 86% complete, lagging behind the 92% 5-year average, while winter wheat planting was at 25% done.

Meanwhile, December wheat traded at $4.782 per bushel, up 0.84%. The wheat contract dropped to $0.04 above a four-year low today at $4.701. Wheat prices have fallen ~28% this season.

Technical support and resistance levels

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, December corn future’s central pivot point on the CBOT stands at $3.242. The contract will see its first resistance level at $3.258. If breached, it will advance to $3.286 and then to $3.302 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $3.214. Should it be broken, wheat will test $3.198 and after that $3.170 per bushel.

November soybeans’ central pivot is at $9.148. The future will have its first resistance at $9.200 and if it broken it will advance first to $9.298 and then to $9.350 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $9.050. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $8.998. If both support levels are penetrated corn will test $8.900 per bushel.

December wheat’s central pivot is projected at $4.729. The contract will have the front resistance level at $4.775. If it manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $4.807 and then $4.853 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $4.697, $4.651 and $4.619 per bushel.