First Solar Fell 10.3% to $172 as Interest Rates Rose

Key Moments

Price Action and Technical Backdrop

Investing.com reports that First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) closed at $172.16, a decline of 10.32%, on Sep 24, 2026 at 3:59 PM EDT. Pre-market trading on Sep 25, 2026 at 6:36 AM EDT showed the stock at $174.05.

The current setup is framed as more of a situation to monitor and potentially stage into rather than a straightforward buying opportunity on weakness. Both daily and weekly technical signals are categorized as Strong Sell. The relative strength index (RSI) is soft, at 30.7 on the daily timeframe and 37.5 on the weekly timeframe. While oversold momentum can generate short-term rebounds, this alone is not viewed as sufficient evidence that the broader decline has concluded.

Why a Patient Approach Is Being Emphasized

From a trend perspective, the stock is trading below its daily moving averages, indicating technical damage to the existing uptrend. On the weekly timeframe, the MACD is in negative territory, and the weekly ADX stands at 30.8, suggesting the move reflects a meaningful trend rather than random price fluctuation.

Near-term risk is also reflected in the earnings outlook. Consensus earnings per share estimates have slipped 10.27% over the past 60 days, while revenue projections have been cut by 7.20% during the same period. This pattern of downward revisions is considered more important in the current assessment than the low RSI readings.

The timing of the next earnings report is described as tentative. For the upcoming quarter, consensus forecasts call for $4.62 in EPS and $1.28B in revenue.

Arguments Supporting the Bullish View

On the positive side, valuation and balance sheet metrics are cited as offering a cushion. According to FinQL, First Solar is trading at a 10.6x trailing price-to-earnings ratio as of Jun 30, 2026. FinQL also indicates a 36.7% Fair Value Upside as of Sep 25, 2026 at 6:41 AM EDT, along with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 1.9% as of Jun 30, 2026.

Sentiment in the broader industry is another point in favor of the stock. The article notes that BMO viewed the recent selloff as overdone and upgraded the shares, citing expectations for improved U.S. module pricing. The comment is referenced with “Read more – Aug 27, 2026.”

Bearish Considerations and Policy Risks

On the downside, the company remains exposed to multiple policy-related and operational uncertainties. Tariffs, international production utilization, and booking visibility are all identified as key areas of concern.

Jefferies is mentioned as having previously reduced its price target to $196 while maintaining a Hold rating. This is referenced with “Read more – Aug 3, 2026.”

Additional pressure on estimates is linked to commentary from HSBC, which pointed to softer 2026 guidance, project permitting delays, tariffs, and underutilization in Southeast Asia. This is referenced with “Read more – Feb 25, 2026.”

Assessment: Not a Classic Dip-Buy Setup Yet

The analysis suggests that a more compelling dip-buy opportunity would likely require several confirmations: daily RSI moving back above 40, the share price regaining approximately the $189–$195 area, and a stabilization in earnings and revenue estimate revisions.

Until these factors align, First Solar is described as having valuation support but lacking strong trend confirmation. The market is effectively asking investors to fund long-term optimism while managing near-term policy-related and estimate risks.