Key Moments
- USD/CAD has advanced for six consecutive sessions, trading near 1.3930 and remaining just below the upper boundary of its ascending channel.
- Momentum indicators stay constructive, with the 14-day RSI at 56 and spot holding above both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.
- Key resistance is seen near 1.3970, while support levels are clustered at 1.3915, 1.3876, and near 1.3790 along the channel’s lower boundary.
Technical Setup: Bullish Structure Intact
USD/CAD continues to build on its recent gains, marking a sixth straight day of advances and trading around 1.3930 during European hours on Wednesday. On the daily chart, the pair is tracking just under the upper trendline of an ascending channel, underscoring a sustained bullish technical tone.
Price action remains constructive as the pair trades above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). With these EMAs situated below the current spot level, the structure points to an underlying upward bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 indicates persistent buying interest without signaling overbought conditions, suggesting that the latest move higher is being supported rather than exhibiting signs of exhaustion.
Resistance Levels and Upside Scenarios
The immediate upside focus is on the top trendline of the ascending channel, located around 1.3970. This zone represents the next key barrier for USD/CAD. A decisive move through this channel resistance would strengthen the prevailing bullish narrative and open the way for the pair to probe the region surrounding the 17-month high at 1.4248, which was recorded on June 24, 2026.
| Upside Levels | Price | Technical Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Channel top resistance | 1.3970 | Upper boundary of ascending channel |
| 17-month high | 1.4248 | Recorded on June 24, 2026 |
Support Structure and Potential Reversal Zone
On the downside, initial technical support is seen at the 50-day EMA at 1.3915. Below that, the nine-day EMA at 1.3876 provides an additional layer of near-term support. A deeper pullback would bring the lower trendline of the ascending channel into focus, around 1.3790.
A breakdown through this lower channel boundary would signal a shift toward a bearish phase, likely increasing selling pressure and potentially steering the pair toward the 1.3481 area, identified as the lowest level since October 2024.
| Support Levels | Price | Technical Significance |
|---|---|---|
| First support – 50-day EMA | 1.3915 | Initial dynamic support |
| Next support – nine-day EMA | 1.3876 | Short-term trend support |
| Channel lower boundary | 1.3790 | Key trendline support |
| Further downside target | 1.3481 | Lowest level since October 2024 |
CAD Drivers: Commodities and Rates vs USD Strength
However, strategists at Scotiabank note that the Canadian Dollar continues to draw some backing from commodity and rate dynamics, with “firmer crude oil prices…providing a little cover for the CAD, as are steady front-end US-Canada yield spreads.” However, they caution that this support may prove insufficient in the face of broader Greenback strength, warning that “the CAD will struggle to resist the broader trend in the USD into and around the FOMC decision regardless.”
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