Key Moments
- EUR/HUF has been trading in a base pattern while repeatedly failing to break above the 200-day moving average near 371, viewed as critical resistance.
- The recent pivot low at 359 is marked as key short-term support, with a move below this level potentially signaling a return to a downside trend.
- Hungary’s headline CPI edged up to 1.3% year-on-year in August from 1.2% in July, keeping the door open for further easing by the MNB, while attention centers on an upcoming press conference.
Macro Backdrop in Hungary
Societe Generale analysts highlight that in Central and Eastern Europe, Hungary’s latest inflation reading shows only a slight acceleration. They note that headline CPI rose to 1.3% year-on-year in August from 1.2% in July, which they say still “leaves the door open to for further easing by the MNB.”
However, they also point out that, “That said, market focus has shifted away from near-term data following last week’s Bloomberg report that the MNB is preparing to pause and potentially lower its inflation target as part of the longer-term path toward euro adoption.”
According to the analysts, “Attention will therefore be firmly on Thursday’s press conference, where Governor Varga and Finance Minister Andras Karman may provide greater clarity on the central bank’s thinking.”
Technical Picture for EUR/HUF
The analysts describe EUR/HUF as trading within a base formation, but emphasize that the cross has been unable to sustain a move through a crucial technical ceiling.
They state that, “EUR/HUF has been evolving within a base formation; however, it has struggled to reclaim the 200-DMA near 371, which remains a crucial resistance.”
From their perspective, “A break above this hurdle will be important to confirm a larger up move. It is worth noting that the previous attempt to overcome this resistance failed in March.”
On the downside, they underline the significance of a recent low: “The recent pivot low at 359 serves as an important short-term support. A break below this could signal the resumption of the downtrend.”
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Type | Analyst Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | 200-day moving average / resistance | “…which remains a crucial resistance” and a break above is needed to confirm a larger upside move. |
| 359 | Pivot low / support | “…serves as an important short-term support” and a loss of this level could indicate a renewed downtrend. |
Analyst Context
The analysts frame the current EUR/HUF price action as part of a broader base-building process constrained by the 200-day moving average. They draw attention to the failed attempt to clear this barrier in March and highlight that the pair continues to oscillate between firm resistance near 371 and key support at 359.
Within this setup, Hungarian inflation dynamics and the MNB’s policy stance – including the discussion around a potential adjustment of the inflation target – are seen as important macro drivers, while the upcoming press conference by Governor Varga and Finance Minister Andras Karman is expected to be a focal point for market participants.
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