Geopolitical Tensions and Speculative Flows Keep Brent Near $90

Key Moments

Geopolitics Underpin Brent Crude Prices

ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that ICE Brent is trading just below $90/bbl, with prices supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East and recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the analysts, ICE Brent “traded just below $90/bbl in early Asian trading, extending Monday’s gains. Prices remained supported by renewed fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over regional supply disruptions and complicating prospects for a US-Iran deal. Several vessels, including ships linked to Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., were reportedly targeted in the waterway late last week.”

Speculative Positioning Turns More Bullish

Funds have materially increased their exposure to Brent, signaling stronger bullish sentiment in the futures market. ING highlights that “speculative positioning turned more bullish. Money managers increased their net long position in ICE Brent by 76,026 lots to 240,748 lots as of last Tuesday, the largest bullish position since early June 2026. The increase was primarily driven by fresh long positions, with gross longs rising by 51,818 lots week-on-week.”

Positioning dynamics in both Brent and WTI are described as increasingly constructive, reflecting the market’s focus on supply risk amid geopolitical uncertainties.

US Drilling Activity and Production Outlook

On the supply side, ING points to a steady increase in US upstream activity. “Meanwhile, US drilling activity continued to expand. The US oil rig count rose by one to 455 active rigs last week, marking a third consecutive weekly increase, according to Baker Hughes. The count is now 43 rigs higher than a year ago and at its highest level since May 2025.”

The analysts note that “drilling activity has trended higher since the start of the US-Iran conflict in late February.” This pickup in activity is reflected in official production forecasts. ING cites the EIA, stating that “the EIA estimates US crude oil production will average 13.8mb/d in 2026, up from 13.6mb/d in 2025, before increasing further to 14.2mb/d in 2027.”

The combination of persistent geopolitical risk, stronger speculative participation, and a gradually expanding US supply base is described by ING as the key set of factors currently keeping Brent prices elevated.