Winter Wheat Leads Broad-Based Futures Advance

Key Moments

Futures Rally Across Major U.S. Wheat Contracts

Wheat futures started the week in rally mode on Monday, with winter wheat contracts showing particularly strong gains in early trade. Strength held into the prior session’s close across all three major U.S. wheat markets.

Chicago soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures finished the previous session 7 to 9 cents higher, although the September contract ended last week down 1 3/4 cents overall. Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) futures settled 13 to 15 cents higher, with the September contract edging up 1/2 cent for the week. Minneapolis spring wheat futures closed 8 to 9 cents higher, with September ending last week 6 1/2 cents above its prior weekly level.

Positioning Shifts in Managed Money

Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed that managed money participants in CBT wheat futures and options increased their net short exposure by 16,906 contracts for the week ending August 4, taking the position to 23,786 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, managed money slightly reduced its net long by 139 contracts, bringing that position to 33,094 contracts.

U.S. Production Outlook Ahead of NASS Report

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is scheduled to publish updated wheat production figures on Wednesday through its monthly Crop Production report. According to analysts surveyed by Reuters, expectations center on total U.S. wheat production of 1.525 bbu. If realized, that would represent an 11 mbu reduction from July.

Within that total, winter wheat production is projected at 981 mbu, a decline of 9 mbu from the prior estimate. Spring wheat output is expected to ease by 7 mbu to 468 mbu.

International Crop and Export Estimates

France’s farm ministry placed the country’s soft wheat crop at 31.9 MMT, a marginal decrease of 0.1 MMT from the previous month’s estimate.

Market consultancy APK-Inform lowered its Ukrainian wheat export outlook for 2026/27 to 13.5 MMT. The group also reduced its forecast for total Ukrainian grain exports by 3.7 MMT, now estimating 39.4 MMT.

Current Wheat Futures Snapshot

Key U.S. wheat futures contracts showed notable price strength, with front-month and deferred contracts recording solid gains and further upward movement currently indicated.