Key Moments
- AUD/USD trades in a tight range around the 0.7000 level after a modest bullish gap at the weekly open.
- The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7019 continues to cap upside momentum as market participants await this week’s FOMC meeting.
- Technical indicators remain mildly constructive, with AUD/USD holding above the 23.6% retracement at 0.6961 and the 200-day SMA near 0.6901.
Australian Dollar Steadies After Bullish Gap
The AUD/USD pair started the week with a small upward gap on Monday but has so far struggled to extend those gains. During the Asian session, the pair has been confined to a narrow trading range centered around the psychologically important 0.7000 handle.
Renewed optimism about a possible diplomatic solution to a five-month US-Iran standoff has weighed on the US Dollar, providing some support to AUD/USD. A decline in crude oil prices has also eased inflation concerns and tempered expectations for US Federal Reserve policy tightening, adding further pressure on the Greenback.
At the same time, market expectations for another interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are helping underpin the Australian Dollar. Even so, investors appear reluctant to commit to strong directional positions and may prefer to remain cautious ahead of this week’s key FOMC monetary policy announcement.
Technical Picture: Fibonacci Levels and Moving Averages
From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD maintains a constructive short-term tone while trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June decline. This positive bias is reinforced by the pair’s recent solid bounce from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), supporting the case for additional near-term upside as long as these levels remain intact.
Momentum indicators align with this mildly bullish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding just above the neutral 50 threshold, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram. These signals suggest that buying pressure is gradually building rather than fading.
However, a more decisive bullish confirmation would likely require a sustained break and acceptance above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, located at 0.7019. Clearing this barrier could open the path toward the 50% retracement at 0.7066. A lasting move beyond these levels would then expose the 61.8% retracement at 0.7113, followed by 0.7180, with the swing high at 0.7265 acting as a more distant upside objective.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% retracement level at 0.6961. Below that, the 200-day SMA around 0.6901 represents a critical technical floor. A deeper pullback could bring the Fibonacci anchor zone near 0.6867 into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Intraday US Dollar Performance Against Majors
The table below shows the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against major currencies today. According to this snapshot, the US Dollar has been strongest versus the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.31% | -0.20% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.29% | -0.20% | -0.37% | |
| EUR | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 0.01% | 0.12% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | 0.20% | -0.08% | 0.07% | 0.16% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | -0.15% | -0.07% | 0.06% | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.19% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.23% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.28% | |
| AUD | 0.29% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.14% | 0.21% | 0.11% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | -0.12% | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.13% | -0.11% | -0.18% | |
| CHF | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.08% | 0.18% |
The heat map above illustrates percentage moves between major currencies. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column, and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar as the base and moving across to the Japanese Yen cell shows the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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