WTI Crude Rallies as Geopolitical Risks Support Bulls

Key Moments

WTI Rallies to One-Month Peak on Supply Concerns

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US Crude Oil price, opens the new week on strong footing, extending its recent advance and touching a new high since June 12. During the Asian session, prices trade in the $84.40-$84.45 band, maintaining the bullish tone that has developed after a rebound from a multi-month low earlier in July.

The latest leg higher comes as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz reinforce concerns over crude supply routes. These developments are helping to sustain the month-to-date recovery in WTI and keep buyers firmly in control.

Technical Structure Favors Further Upside

From a chart perspective, WTI has recently broken above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour timeframe, a move registered last week. That breakout was followed by a push through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July decline, strengthening the constructive technical backdrop for bullish participants.

Momentum indicators are aligned with this positive bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in overbought territory around 76, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory. Together, these readings indicate that buying pressure is still dominant, even as some gauges signal stretched conditions.

Key Technical Levels in Focus

With bullish momentum intact, an extension of the move higher toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement, located near $85.84, appears increasingly plausible. A decisive and sustained break above that level would pave the way for a test of the 61.8% retracement at $90.28. Beyond that, higher Fibonacci-based resistance zones are seen at $96.59 and $104.64.

On the downside, initial support is identified at the 38.2% retracement level at $81.40. If selling pressure intensifies, deeper pullbacks could bring the 23.6% retracement at $75.91 into view, as well as the underlying 200-period SMA, currently situated around $76.97. Further below, the recent cycle low near $67.04 is likely to serve as a more distant structural floor.