Key Moments
- WTI trades around $71.75 during the Asian session, stabilizing after the prior day’s decline.
- Renewed US-Iran military exchanges support a geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.
- A larger-than-expected 2.998 million barrel US inventory build and an OPEC+ production hike limit upside.
WTI Steadies After Recent Selloff
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the primary US crude oil benchmark, is trading in a tight range during the Asian session on Friday, as market participants weigh conflicting signals from the United States and Iran. Prices are hovering near $71.75, leaving the contract broadly flat on the day and pausing the previous session’s slide while investors monitor developments in the Middle East.
Geopolitical Risks Remain Elevated
The geopolitical risk premium in crude has reemerged after the US military launched a fresh round of strikes against Iran earlier this week, responding to Tehran’s attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, in turn, retaliated by hitting American allies and targeting US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait.
US President Donald Trump also indicated on Wednesday that the ceasefire had effectively ended, a shift that contributed to a rally in crude prices in the first half of the week. These events have kept geopolitical tensions in focus and underpinned WTI.
Mixed Messaging from Washington Cools Market Nerves
Some of the recent anxiety eased after Trump said on Thursday that Iran had reached out to pursue a deal with the United States to halt further escalation in the region. In addition, a White House official stated that the US remains committed to the memorandum of understanding with Iran.
This softer tone, combined with the latest OPEC+ decision to implement another increase in production targets, is acting as a counterweight to the earlier risk-driven gains. Together, these factors are seen as limiting further upside in crude and encouraging caution among traders considering new bullish positions.
Inventory Build and OPEC+ Move Weigh on Price Outlook
On the supply side, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected rise in crude inventories for the week ending July 3, marking the first increase in 11 weeks. Commercial crude oil stocks climbed by 2.998 million barrels, surpassing analyst expectations and adding another headwind for prices.
Despite these bearish elements – the OPEC+ production target increase and the inventory build – WTI is still on track for modest weekly gains and appears set to break a four-week losing streak.
| Key WTI Drivers | Latest Developments |
|---|---|
| Current WTI price level | Around $71.75 during the Asian session on Friday |
| Geopolitical backdrop | US strikes on Iran and Iranian attacks on US allies and installations in Bahrain and Kuwait |
| US policy signals | Trump claims Iran wants a deal; US remains committed to memorandum of understanding |
| OPEC+ policy | Decision to implement another production target increase |
| US crude inventories (week ending July 3) | Build of 2.998 million barrels, first rise in 11 weeks |
| Weekly price performance | WTI on course for modest gains, potentially ending a four-week losing streak |
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