Wheat Extends Rally on Output and Export Signals

Key Moments

Futures Complex Builds on Thursday’s Strength

Wheat futures are moving higher again on Friday morning, with winter wheat contracts showing double-digit advances and spring wheat trading a nickel higher. This follows a session on Thursday in which wheat led gains across the broader grain markets and finished solidly higher on all three major exchanges.

Chicago SRW contracts ended Thursday with gains ranging from 4 3/4 to 12 cents. Open interest in Chicago wheat increased by 3,111 contracts. Delivery activity overnight included 2 contracts tendered against CBT wheat and 53 contracts delivered for July KC wheat.

KC HRW futures also closed Thursday in positive territory, adding between 6 1/2 and 9 cents. MPLS spring wheat futures advanced by 2 3/4 to 8 1/2 cents during the session.

Export Sales: Activity Rebounds but Trails Last Year

USDA’s Export Sales report released Thursday morning showed 2026/27 wheat bookings of 313,103 MT for the week ended July 2. While that total improved from the prior week, it remained 45.86% below the volume recorded in the comparable week a year earlier.

South Korea was the leading buyer with 101,000 MT. Nigeria followed closely with 100,000 MT, and Mexico accounted for 68,600 MT.

Market Awaits USDA Crop Production and WASDE Updates

Fresh USDA Crop Production figures are scheduled for release on Friday. A Bloomberg survey of analysts points to total US wheat production of 1.527 bbu, a decrease of 17 mbu from last month’s estimate. Within that, all winter wheat production is projected at 1.004 bbu, which would be 26 mbu below last month, while spring wheat output is seen at 458 mbu.

In the WASDE report, traders are anticipating a tighter domestic balance sheet, with US wheat ending stocks expected to fall by 26 mbu to 718 mbu.

Global Supply Adjustments and International Demand

Overnight, Taiwan issued a tender for 98,150 MT of US wheat, with offers due by July 15.

On the global production front, Argentina’s 2026/27 wheat outlook was raised by 0.5 MMT to 20.5 MMT by the Rosario Grains Exchange. In contrast, EU production estimates have been revised lower. The latest Expana figure reduced EU wheat output by 0.9 MMT to 128.3 MMT, while Coceral cut combined EU and UK production by 2.9 MMT to 140.8 MMT.

French conditions have also softened. FranceAgriMer reported that France’s wheat crop ratings slipped another 3 percentage points to 65% good/excellent this week, with harvest progress at 29% complete. USDA is expected to offer its perspective on these global shifts in Friday’s WASDE report, with world wheat ending stocks projected to decline by 2.2 MMT to 273.2 MMT.

Futures Snapshot: Settlement and Current Trade

Disclosure

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.