Key Moments
- Chicago SRW wheat contracts finished Wednesday lower by 7 3/4 to 10 3/4 cents, with open interest rising by 3,221 contracts.
- Analysts are watching for USDA weekly export sales between 250,000 and 600,000 MT for 2026/27 wheat in the week of July 2.
- SovEcon cut its 2026/27 wheat production outlook by 0.2 MMT to 46.5 MMT, slightly above its prior-year projection of 46.2 MMT.
Mixed Early Trade Follows Broad Midweek Weakness
Wheat futures were fractionally mixed on Thursday morning, with Chicago contracts holding to the firmer side. This followed a broadly weaker midweek session across the major U.S. wheat markets.
Chicago soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures ended Wednesday with losses ranging from 7 3/4 to 10 3/4 cents. Open interest in Chicago wheat increased by 3,221 contracts on the day, indicating fresh participation despite the price pullback. Overnight, 25 delivery notices were posted against July futures.
Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat futures also finished lower on Wednesday, declining by 5 1/2 to 7 3/4 cents. Open interest in the KC market fell by 1,885 contracts, pointing to some position reduction. Minneapolis spring wheat futures were steady to 3 cents lower across most listed contracts.
USDA Export Sales and Crop Production Reports in Focus
Traders are awaiting the release of weekly USDA Export Sales data on Thursday morning. Market expectations are centered on 2026/27 wheat export sales in a range between 250,000 and 600,000 metric tons for the week of July 2.
Attention is also turning to Friday’s scheduled Crop Production update. According to a Bloomberg poll of analysts, total U.S. wheat production is projected at 1.527 billion bushels, which would be 17 million bushels below last month’s estimate. Analysts in the poll see all winter wheat output at 1.004 billion bushels, a 26 million bushel reduction from last month, while spring wheat production is projected at 458 million bushels.
Global Supply Outlook: SovEcon Trims Forecast
On the international front, SovEcon reduced its 2026/27 wheat production forecast by 0.2 million metric tons to 46.5 million metric tons. That revised figure remains slightly above its projection of 46.2 million metric tons for the prior year.
Futures Snapshot
The table below summarizes Wednesday’s settlement levels along with current price indications referenced in the report:
| Contract | Exchange | Contract Month | Wednesday Close | Change on Wednesday | Current Indication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Wheat | CBOT | Jul 26 | $5.99 1/2 | down 9 3/4 cents | currently unch |
| CBOT Wheat | CBOT | Sep 26 | $6.07 3/4 | down 10 3/4 cents | currently up 1/4 cents |
| KCBT Wheat | KCBT | Jul 26 | $6.34 1/4 | down 5 1/2 cents | currently down 4 1/4 cents |
| KCBT Wheat | KCBT | Sep 26 | $6.45 1/4 | down 7 1/2 cents | currently down 1/4 cent |
| MIAX Wheat | MIAX | Jul 26 | $6.03 | unch | currently unch |
| MIAX Wheat | MIAX | Sep 26 | $6.31 3/4 | down 2 1/4 cents | currently unch |
Disclosure
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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