Key Moments
- Corn futures extended their pullback early Thursday, trading 2 to 4 cents lower after Wednesday’s 3 to 8 3/4 cent declines.
- EIA reported weekly ethanol production at 1.093 million barrels per day for the week of July 3, while ethanol stocks fell to 23.928 million barrels.
- Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected Friday’s WASDE report to show lower old and new crop corn ending stocks versus prior projections.
Futures Retreat After Sharp Rebound
Corn futures were under pressure early Thursday, with contracts trading 2 to 4 cents lower and extending the previous session’s decline. On Wednesday, corn futures surrendered part of last week’s nearly 40-cent rebound from the lows, finishing the day 3 to 8 3/4 cents weaker. Open interest decreased by 3,588 contracts on Wednesday, and 88 deliveries were reported against July corn futures overnight.
The CmdtyView national average cash corn price moved 9 cents lower to $4.04.
Ethanol Production, Stocks, and Trade Flows
Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday morning showed ethanol production averaging 1.093 million barrels per day for the week of July 3, a decrease of 24,000 barrels per day from the prior week.
Ethanol inventories declined by 762,000 barrels to 23.928 million barrels. Ethanol exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 200,000 barrels per day, while refiner inputs of ethanol slipped by 20,000 barrels per day to 901,000 barrels per day.
Export Sales Expectations
USDA’s Export Sales report was scheduled for release Thursday morning. Market participants were anticipating old crop corn export sales in a range between 0.6 million metric tons and 1.1 million metric tons for the week of July 2. New crop export sales were expected to come in between 600,000 metric tons and 900,000 metric tons.
Weather Outlook for Key Growing Areas
The 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from NOAA projected rainfall of 1 to 2 inches along a corridor mainly south of Interstate 80. That band was expected to cover most of Indiana and Ohio, the southern half of Illinois, and much of Missouri. In contrast, parts of Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin were indicated to remain relatively dry.
WASDE Report Projections
The monthly WASDE report was set for release on Friday. A Bloomberg survey of analysts pointed to an expected reduction of 66 million bushels in old crop corn ending stocks, to 2.079 billion bushels. New crop ending stocks were projected to decline by 61 million bushels to 1.899 billion bushels.
Corn Market Snapshot
| Contract / Cash | Most Recent Close | Change at Close | Current Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26 Corn | $4.34 3/4 | down 7 3/4 cents | currently down 2 3/4 cents |
| Nearby Cash | $4.04 1/1 | down 9 cents | – |
| Sep 26 Corn | $4.35 | down 8 3/4 cents | currently down 3 cents |
| Dec 26 Corn | $4.56 1/4 | down 8 cents | currently down 3 1/2 cents |
| New Crop Cash | $4.07 5/8 | down 8 1/4 cents | – |
Disclosure
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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