Key Moments
- ING economists say fading prospects of further ECB and Fed tightening should reduce external pressure on the Polish Zloty.
- They highlight that investor concerns about a more dovish National Bank of Poland stance are currently negative for PLN.
- With euro adoption still distant in Poland, ING warns that any additional softening in NBP rhetoric could weigh more heavily on the Zloty than on the Forint.
NBP Tone Emerges as Main Driver for PLN
ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak state that the reduced likelihood of further policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) should alleviate external headwinds for the Polish Zloty.
They caution, however, that the foreign exchange market remains focused on the risk that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) could soon adopt a more dovish policy stance, which they view as negative for the currency.
Comparison with Hungary and Forint Support
According to the economists, the market reaction to central bank communication has differed between Poland and Hungary. They note that:
| Central Bank | Perceived Rhetoric | FX Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| National Bank of Poland (NBP) | Potentially turning more dovish | Viewed as negative for the Zloty (PLN) |
| National Bank of Hungary | Dovish rhetoric | Described as having little impact on the Forint (HUF) |
They emphasize that the Hungarian Forint continues to benefit from what they describe as a strong convergence play, despite the National Bank of Hungary’s dovish communication.
Euro Adoption Distance and Zloty Downside Risk
The economists argue that, in Poland’s case, the timing of potential euro adoption remains far off. In their view, this makes the Zloty more exposed to any further easing in NBP rhetoric than the Forint is to similar signals from Hungary’s central bank.
They therefore see a softer tone from the NBP as carrying greater downside risk for the Polish currency.
Near-Term Communication Outlook
Looking ahead to upcoming central bank communication, the economists remark on the likely tone from the NBP’s leadership. They state: “While Governor Adam Glapiński may strike a somewhat dovish tone at Thursday’s press conference, the debate over potential rate cuts is only likely to gather momentum after the summer.”
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