XRP, XLM Extend Rebound as Metrics Signal Cautious Optimism

Key Moments

Risk-On Tone Supports XRP and XLM Rebound

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) continue to recover on Thursday, supported by an improvement in overall market sentiment. XRP changes hands above $1.05, while XLM trades beyond $0.199. Despite the rebound, traders are urged to remain cautious, as on-chain and derivatives indicators point to only a modestly bullish tilt, with additional upside likely contingent on sustained buying interest.

Derivatives Positioning Shows Mild Bullish Skew

Data from derivatives markets paints a nuanced picture with a slight lean toward optimism. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for XRP stands at 1.12 on Thursday, its highest reading in more than a month, reflecting a constructive bias among leveraged traders. Over the same period, XLM’s long-to-short ratio registers at 0.97, just below neutral but inching closer to bullish territory, suggesting that bearish pressure is starting to ease.

Even so, funding dynamics remain a headwind. XRP and XLM funding rates are still modestly negative at -0.002% and -0.0015%, respectively, on Thursday. This indicates that, despite the price rebound, an element of bearish sentiment persists in perpetual futures markets.

On-Chain Signals Diverge Between XRP and XLM

CryptoQuant’s aggregated on-chain and market data reveals a split narrative between the two assets. For XRP, spot and futures order flow from large wallets shows activity from bigger players, while other indicators remain neutral. This backdrop is consistent with a market that is attempting a recovery, backed by whale interest but without broad confirmation across all metrics.

In contrast, XLM’s readings point to overheating and selling-side dominance in both spot and derivatives markets. Retail flows are described as mixed, implying a cautious stance from smaller participants. This configuration suggests that, for XLM, recovery efforts may be limited as long as selling pressure and overheated conditions persist.

XRP Technical View: Recovery Above $1.00 Within a Broader Downtrend

XRP trades at $1.059 on Thursday, extending its bounce after successfully defending the psychologically important $1.00 level. However, the broader technical backdrop still favors the bears. The token remains well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are located at $1.188, $1.297, and $1.516, respectively. Price also stays under the upper band of a descending parallel channel near $1.141, leaving XRP confined within a larger corrective pattern.

Momentum indicators support a theme of stabilization rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36, signaling weakness but no longer indicating oversold conditions. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive, hinting that downside momentum is abating rather than signaling a robust bullish phase.

On the upside, initial resistance aligns with the channel boundary around $1.141. A stronger advance would bring the 50-day EMA at $1.188 into view, an area where selling interest could reassert itself. Above that, the 100-day EMA at $1.297 coincides with horizontal resistance near $1.3000, forming a dense overhead zone that may be difficult to clear.

Support remains narrowly defined. Apart from the key psychological level at $1.00, there are no clearly established technical floors highlighted, leaving XRP exposed to renewed downside if $1.00 fails to hold. In such a scenario, fresh demand areas would need to form or momentum would need to improve more convincingly to stabilize price action.

XLM Technical View: Price Holds Above Key Moving Averages

Stellar (XLM) trades at $0.199, maintaining a constructive short-term posture. Price sits above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, which are clustered between roughly $0.186 and $0.199. This grouping of moving averages underpins the token’s recovery from late-May lows and provides a technical foundation for the current bounce.

Momentum indicators for XLM are more encouraging than those for XRP. The RSI, at about 53, is modestly positive, while the MACD remains slightly below zero but continues to contract, suggesting that bearish momentum is gradually waning.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest swing near $0.200. Above that, the 50% retracement around $0.218 presents the next barrier, followed by $0.237 and $0.260, which align with the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively.

On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 200-day EMA near $0.198. Below that, the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.189 and $0.185 offer additional layers of support. A deeper decline would expose horizontal backing at $0.177, reinforced by the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $0.173. Further down, $0.142 is identified as a more distant structural base.