BofA Sees Shopify Leading AI Commerce Shift

Key Moments

Agentic Commerce Thesis Drives Bullish Call

Bank of America has resumed coverage of Shopify with a Buy recommendation and set a $150 price target, citing the company’s strategic positioning as commerce shifts toward AI-driven, agentic experiences.

The bank’s target price reflects a 22x 2027E enterprise value to gross profit multiple, above the software peer group average of 18.1x. Analyst Tal Liani argued that this premium multiple is supported by expectations for stronger top-line expansion, with modeled revenue growth of 28.3% in 2026 and 24% in 2027, both ahead of the sector.

Following the rating and target announcement, Shopify shares were up 2.4% in U.S. premarket trading.

Debate Over AI Impact and “Platform Bypass”

According to the analysts, the key point of contention among investors is whether AI could erode Shopify’s role in the commerce technology stack by moving product discovery and transaction flows into AI-first interfaces. They noted that worries about potential “platform bypass” have contributed to a 25% year-to-date decline in Shopify’s share price, which they believe has now produced “an attractive entry point.”

The team argued that as AI agentic interfaces handle more shopping journeys, the economic value will increasingly sit in transaction execution and infrastructure capabilities, where Shopify is already firmly integrated. They highlighted Shopify’s checkout capabilities, payments platform, and product catalog infrastructure as assets that should become even more important in an AI-native transaction environment.

The note referenced Gartner research indicating that agentic commerce could represent around 20% of global e-commerce transactions by 2030.

AI Adoption Metrics Across the Platform

Bank of America pointed to rapid growth in AI-related activity across Shopify’s ecosystem. As of the first quarter of 2026, AI-driven traffic directed to Shopify merchants increased eightfold year-over-year. Over the same period, orders originating from AI-powered search climbed roughly 13-fold.

Engagement with Shopify’s Sidekick AI assistant also accelerated, with weekly active users advancing 385% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026.

International and Enterprise Growth Drivers

Beyond AI, the analysts emphasized that Shopify’s international and enterprise segments are contributing meaningfully to its growth profile.

International gross merchandise volume expanded 45% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. During the same period, Shop Pay volume outside the U.S. advanced more than 70% year-over-year.

Shopify Plus, the enterprise-grade offering, also showed solid momentum. Monthly recurring revenue for Shopify Plus increased 20% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, outpacing overall monthly recurring revenue growth of 16.5%.

Margin Outlook Through 2028

BofA’s modeling points to margin expansion over the next several years, even with expectations for a slight decline in gross margin due to the payments-heavy composition of Shopify’s business.

The bank forecasts operating margin to increase from 17.1% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2028. Over the same timeframe, free cash flow margin is projected to rise from 17.4% to 20.3%.