Key Moments
- Tesla’s second-quarter vehicle deliveries are expected to increase by 5%, driven mainly by stronger European demand.
- Wall Street forecasts 402,780 deliveries for the June quarter, a 4.9% year-over-year rise and 12.5% sequential gain, according to 20 analysts.
- Deutsche Bank projects nearly 40% regional growth in Europe, modest 3% growth in China, and a 21% annual decline in North America.
Analysts Project Q2 Delivery Rebound
Tesla is anticipated to post a 5% increase in vehicle deliveries for the second quarter when it reports figures on Thursday, according to analyst estimates.
The expected improvement is linked primarily to stronger demand in Europe, where significantly higher fuel prices have encouraged more consumers to opt for battery-powered vehicles.
Demand in China is expected to remain steady, while the United States continues to face headwinds after the expiration of the $7,500 Biden-era federal EV tax credit in September.
Street Expectations and Regional Breakdown
Wall Street forecasts that Tesla’s electric-vehicle deliveries for the June quarter will reach 402,780 units, based on estimates from 20 analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha. That projection represents a 4.9% increase from the same period a year earlier and a 12.5% gain compared with the previous quarter.
| Metric | Figure / Change | Source / Note |
|---|---|---|
| Expected Q2 deliveries | 402,780 vehicles | 20 analysts polled by Visible Alpha |
| Year-over-year change | 4.9% increase | June quarter vs. prior year |
| Quarter-on-quarter change | 12.5% increase | Compared with three months earlier |
Deutsche Bank expects the strongest regional expansion to come from Europe, with nearly 40% growth. The firm projects a 3% increase in China, contrasted with a 21% decline in North America compared with the prior year.
Tesla does not provide a regional breakdown of its delivery figures.
European Recovery and Policy Backdrop
Analysts attribute the improvement in Europe in part to rising fuel prices linked to the Iran war, which is boosting demand for both new and used electric vehicles across the region.
The recent recovery follows a period of sharply lower sales in Europe in 2025, when the company faced a backlash tied to CEO Elon Musk’s far-right political rhetoric.
Several European countries are expected to publish monthly and quarterly automotive sales data on Wednesday, offering additional insight into the regional demand landscape.
Technology and Product Strategy
Analysts say the rollout of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver assistance system could support further demand in Europe, although the software has so far been allowed in only a limited number of countries. An EU vote on a broader rollout is expected later this year.
To support volumes, Tesla has introduced lower-cost versions of its Model 3 and Model Y over the past year, as part of a broader effort to stimulate sales.
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