Key Moments
- Brent crude dropped $1.14, or 1.6%, to $71.81 a barrel, while U.S. WTI declined $1.11, or 1.6%, to $68.39 a barrel at 0859 GMT.
- Analysts have lowered their 2026 oil price projections for the first time since the Iran war started, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased supply concerns.
- Official U.S. oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT), following indications of another crude draw from American Petroleum Institute figures.
Market Overview
Oil prices moved lower by more than 1% on Wednesday, with traders focused on ongoing efforts between Iran and the United States to reach a final agreement to end their war, as well as upcoming U.S. stockpile data.
At 0859 GMT, Brent crude futures were down $1.14, or 1.6%, at $71.81 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.11, or 1.6%, to $68.39 per barrel.
| Contract | Price | Move | Percentage Change | Time (GMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | $71.81 | – $1.14 | – 1.6% | 0859 |
| WTI | $68.39 | – $1.11 | – 1.6% | 0859 |
Geopolitics and Supply Risk
PVM Associates analyst Tamas Varga noted that market participants are balancing concerns over disruptions against expectations that negotiations will advance. “Stuttering talks between the U.S. and Iran are raising concerns of fresh supply disruptions. On the other hand, investors are confident that whatever issues are hindering negotiations will be resolved soon,” he said.
Varga added, “All in all, the downside bias is intact, hard data in the form of stock depletion or the re-closure of the strait might alter the prevailing mood.”
According to a source with direct knowledge of the process, indirect technical discussions between Washington and Tehran are taking place in Doha, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as intermediaries.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha on Tuesday for what the White House described as “high level” talks. However, both Iran and host nation Qatar indicated they would engage with the mediators rather than hold direct meetings with the U.S. representatives.
Price Performance and Forecast Shifts
Brent crude dropped by about $45 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, marking its steepest quarterly decline since the 2008 global financial crisis. U.S. crude futures fell by roughly $31 over the same period, their largest quarterly fall since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic severely curbed global oil demand.
These losses followed progress toward ending the conflict in the Middle East, which had driven sharp price gains in March after hostilities began.
After five consecutive months of upward revisions, analysts have now reduced their 2026 oil price outlooks for the first time since the Iran war began. The shift came as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduced worries about extended supply outages, according to a Reuters survey.
Strait of Hormuz and Shipping Flows
Tanker movements through the key Strait of Hormuz have started to rebound. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said that crude flows through the corridor had returned to levels seen before the war.
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