AUD/USD Holds Steady Ahead of RBA Minutes, U.S. Jobs Data

Key Moments

Range-Bound Trade in AUD/USD Ahead of Key Macro Events

The AUD/USD pair is fluctuating in a narrow band around 0.6890 during the Asian session on Monday, with price action largely directionless as the new week gets underway. The Australian Dollar is consolidating while the U.S. Dollar starts on a subdued footing, as market participants await the upcoming United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, scheduled for release on Thursday.

At the time of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies – is trading quietly near 101.30, reflecting the cautious tone in currency markets.

Fed Outlook Hinges on Upcoming U.S. Labor Data

The forthcoming U.S. NFP figures are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Current pricing, as reflected by the CME FedWatch tool, indicates an almost 90% probability that the Fed will implement at least one additional interest rate increase this year.

Consensus projections suggest the U.S. economy added 114K new jobs, compared with 172K in May. The Unemployment Rate is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.3%. The data are likely to be closely scrutinized for signs of labor-market strength or weakness that could influence the Fed’s stance.

RBA Policy Stance and Australian Dollar Focus

On the Australian side, attention is centered on the upcoming release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes from its June monetary policy meeting. In that decision, the RBA maintained its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% after raising rates at three consecutive prior meetings.

The minutes will provide a more detailed account of the RBA Board’s assessment of domestic and global economic conditions, as well as the internal debate that led to the decision to hold the OCR steady.

AUD/USD Technical Picture: Bearish Bias Under 20-Day EMA

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is trading almost unchanged around 0.689, but the short-term outlook remains negative. The pair is holding below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently positioned at 0.7003. This positioning under the key moving average underlines the prevailing downside bias.

Momentum indicators highlight stretched bearish conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 27.70, placing the pair in oversold territory. Despite this, price action continues to be constrained beneath the 20-day EMA, limiting any recovery attempts for now.

Key Technical Levels

On the upside, the 20-day EMA at 0.7003 is the first notable resistance level. A daily close above this threshold would be needed to reduce immediate selling pressure and could open the way for an extension of the rebound towards the June 15 high at 0.7088.

On the downside, if the bearish tone persists, AUD/USD is seen as vulnerable to further weakness toward the March 30 low at 0.6833.