Soybeans Ease After Rally as Weather, Export Demand Eyed

Key Moments

Early Friday Trade: Soybeans Pull Back

Soybean futures are under pressure in early Friday morning activity, trading 5 to 7 cents lower after a strong advance in the previous session. On Thursday, contracts finished 16 1/2 to 22 cents higher across the curve.

Open interest declined by 25,894 contracts on Thursday, with most of that move concentrated in July positions ahead of options expiration on Friday and first notice day on Monday.

The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price was reported at $10.79 3/4, up 20 1/2 cents. In the product markets, nearby soymeal futures added $1.40 to $4.90, while soybean oil futures recovered by 129 to 169 points.

Weather Outlook: Patchy Moisture and Warm Temperatures

According to the NOAA 7-day QPF, precipitation heading into the first few days of July is expected to be limited in portions of Nebraska (NE), South Dakota (SD), Iowa (IA), the southern parts of Minnesota (MN) and Wisconsin (WI), as well as the northern areas of the Eastern Corn Belt.

In contrast, much of the Eastern Corn Belt is projected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. The 8-14 day outlook from the CPC indicates above-normal temperatures across the United States, with the Eastern Corn Belt also projected to see below-normal precipitation.

Export Sales: Strong Soybean Demand Led by Unknown Destinations

Export Sales data released this morning showed 455,405 metric tons (MT) of 2025/26 soybean sales for the week of June 18. This represented a 12-week high for old crop business and was 13.02% larger than the same week a year earlier.

Unknown destinations were the top buyer with 263,100 MT, followed by Algeria with 89,000 MT.

For the new crop marketing year, weekly soybean sales totaled 902,159 MT, marking a marketing year high and coming in well above the same week last year. Unknown destinations again led the purchases at 529,000 MT, with China booking 200,000 MT.

Soybean Meal and Oil Export Activity

Soybean meal export sales were reported at 182,260 MT, which was below the estimated range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT. Soybean oil bookings were recorded at 852 MT, within the expected range of 0 to 13,000 MT.

Global Supply: IGC Holds Production Steady, Lifts 2025/26 Stocks

The International Grains Council left its 2026/27 world soybean production estimate unchanged at 442 million metric tons (MMT), with global ending stocks for that marketing year steady at 76 MMT.

For 2025/26, the IGC increased projected ending stocks by 1 MMT to 79 MMT.

Futures and Cash Prices Snapshot

Disclosure

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.