Key Moments
- Wheat futures were modestly higher early Wednesday after sizable losses across Chicago, KC, and Minneapolis contracts on Tuesday.
- US winter wheat harvest reached 40% completion by Sunday, running 16% ahead of the typical pace, while overall crop conditions slipped.
- Sovecon pegged the Russian 2026/27 wheat crop at 88.9 MMT, trimming its prior estimate by 1.4 MMT.
Futures Rebound After Tuesday’s Declines
Wheat futures were seeing a mild rebound early Wednesday following a broad downturn in the prior session that pressured all three major US wheat markets, with spring wheat taking the brunt of the selling.
Chicago SRW futures finished Tuesday lower by 8 1/4 to 10 3/4 cents, with open interest data indicating that long positions were being reduced as total open interest fell by 8,946 contracts. KC HRW futures settled with losses between 13 and 15 1/4 cents, accompanied by a 1,959-contract decline in open interest. MPLS spring wheat futures led the downside, ending 14 to 24 3/4 cents lower.
Weather Outlook for Spring Wheat Areas
Forecasts called for much of the spring wheat belt from Minnesota to Idaho to receive 1-2 inches of rain over the coming week, with heavier precipitation expected across Canadian growing regions.
US Crop Progress and Condition Metrics
NASS Crop Progress data showed that 40% of the US winter wheat crop was harvested as of Sunday, placing progress 16% ahead of the normal pace. Overall winter wheat conditions slipped by 1 percentage point to 26% rated good to excellent. The Brugler500 index for winter wheat declined by 3 points to 264.
Across the major HRW-producing states, the Brugler500 index averaged 211, down 2 points. SRW conditions improved, with the SRW index up 2 points to 359. White wheat states saw a sharper weekly decline, with their average index dropping 15 points to 352.
For spring wheat, 16% of the crop was reported headed, matching the 5-year average pace. Spring wheat conditions were rated 54% good to excellent, down 1 percentage point on the week, and the Brugler500 index eased 1 point to 351. Condition deterioration was noted in Washington (-9), North Dakota (-4), Idaho (-4) and Minnesota (-1), while improvements were seen in Montana (+9) and South Dakota (+3).
Russian Production Outlook
Sovecon estimated Russian wheat production for the 2026/27 season at 88.9 MMT, lowering its previous projection by 1.4 MMT.
Wheat Futures Pricing Snapshot
| Contract | Exchange | Last Close | Change on Day | Current Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26 Wheat | CBOT | $5.86 3/4 | down 10 3/4 cents | currently up 2 cents |
| Sep 26 Wheat | CBOT | $5.97 | down 10 1/2 cents | currently up 2 1/4 cents |
| Jul 26 Wheat | KCBT | $6.18 1/4 | down 15 1/4 cents | currently up 2 3/4 cents |
| Sep 26 Wheat | KCBT | $6.25 1/4 | down 14 3/4 cents | currently up 3 cents |
| Jul 26 Wheat | MIAX | $5.88 | down 24 3/4 cents | currently up 3 1/2 cents |
| Sep 26 Wheat | MIAX | $6.18 1/2 | down 21 cents | currently up 2 cents |
Disclosure
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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