Key Moments
- WTI futures on NYMEX fell 1.2% to around $75.50 in early Asian trading after surrendering earlier gains.
- The US, Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan reported progress in negotiations and agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal.
- WTI remains below its 20-day EMA near $84.05, while an RSI near 33 points to persistent bearish momentum.
Oil Falls as Diplomatic Progress Improves Sentiment
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded 1.2% lower near $75.50 during Monday’s Asian session. Prices reversed earlier gains as investors reacted to encouraging developments from US-Iran talks held in Switzerland.
Both sides reported progress and signaled support for a deal within 60 days. As a result, traders lowered expectations for prolonged supply disruptions.
According to CNBC, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations made “great progress.” He added that Tehran secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, relief from the US naval blockade, access to some frozen assets, and support for reconstruction projects.
Meanwhile, Iran’s recent decision to re-close the Strait of Hormuz continues to influence market sentiment. Tehran linked the move to ongoing hostilities in Lebanon.
US and Regional Mediators Support New Roadmap
On the US side, Vice President JD Vance also described the Swiss talks positively. He said negotiators made “great progress” during the discussions.
In addition, Qatar and Pakistan expressed optimism about future negotiations. Both countries are helping mediate talks between Washington and Tehran.
Their joint statement said a high-level committee approved a roadmap to reach a final agreement within 60 days. The plan also allows technical discussions to begin immediately.
Furthermore, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said authorities established a formal transit mechanism to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI Technical Outlook Remains Bearish
Despite the diplomatic progress, WTI’s technical picture remains weak. Prices continue to trade well below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $84.05.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 33, signaling ongoing selling pressure. Therefore, any short-term rebound may remain corrective rather than mark a lasting trend reversal.
| Technical Level | Price | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 20-day EMA (Resistance) | $84.05 | Bulls must reclaim this level to improve sentiment |
| Key Upside Target | $90.00 | Potential target if price breaks above resistance |
| June 18 Low (Support) | $72.79 | A break could trigger additional selling |
| Pre-war Area (Support) | $67.20 | Next major support zone |
On the upside, traders will watch the 20-day EMA near $84.05. A sustained move above that level could improve sentiment and open the door toward $90.
However, downside risks remain. If WTI falls below $72.79, sellers could target the next support area near $67.20.
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