Key Moments
- XAU/USD has advanced about 6.5% in the last three trading days but is now stalling just above $4,300.
- Technical signals still point to a broader bearish trend, with key resistance levels seen between $4,380 and $4,465.
Gold Holds Recent Gains as Sentiment Turns Cautious
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with a slightly positive bias on Tuesday, consolidating its recent advance after climbing roughly 6.5% over the past few sessions. The move higher lost momentum once prices moved above the $4,300 mark, with the metal now trading mostly sideways as the initial optimism surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement fades.
Investors are shifting to a more guarded stance, awaiting further information on the agreement and upcoming monetary policy decisions by major central banks. The lack of clarity is limiting follow-through buying in gold despite the strong rebound.
Markets Await Details on US-Iran Deal
US President Donald Trump said that the peace deal with Iran has already been signed and that the specifics could be made public before Friday. Market participants are focused on how the agreement may affect several key issues, particularly traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed global inflation sharply higher over the last three months.
There is also close attention on Iran’s nuclear program, as the possibility that tensions could flare up again has not been fully dismissed. These unresolved questions are tempering the initial relief rally in risk assets and supporting a more measured tone in gold.
Central Bank Policy Expectations in Focus
Beyond geopolitical developments, traders are also looking ahead to interest rate decisions from several leading central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Market participants are keen to gauge whether the peace deal will influence policymakers to reconsider or delay previously signaled monetary tightening plans.
The interaction between evolving geopolitical risks and central bank responses remains a key driver for gold in the near term, with any perceived shift in policy path likely to affect the metal’s direction.
Technical Picture: Recovery Within a Broader Downtrend
XAU/USD is currently quoted around $4,315, extending its corrective rebound but still trading beneath a cluster of nearby resistance levels. Daily momentum indicators are improving but have yet to turn decisively bullish.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating near 43, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory. This setup indicates that, despite recent stabilization and gains, downside forces continue to dominate the broader trend.
| XAU/USD – Key Technical Levels | |
|---|---|
| Area | Level / Description |
| Current price | $4,315 |
| Immediate resistance | $4,380 – Prior support from May 27 and 28, now likely acting as resistance |
| Trendline resistance | Around $4,430 – Descending trendline from January’s peak |
| Key moving average | About $4,465 – 200-day SMA |
| Upside target | $4,590 area – Late-May highs |
| Near-term support | $4,260 area – Monday’s low |
| Secondary support | $4,023 – Last week’s low |
| Deeper downside level | $3,888 – Late October 2025 level |
Key Resistance and Support Zones
On the upside, gold buyers are expected to encounter firm resistance as prices approach $4,400. The prior support area near $4,380 from the May 27 and May 28 lows is now likely to act as an initial barrier. Above that zone, attention turns to the descending trendline from the January peak, currently around $4,430, followed by the closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $4,465. If these hurdles are cleared, the late-May highs around $4,590 become the next notable target.
On the downside, support is seen near Monday’s low in the $4,260 area. A break below that level would shift focus to last week’s trough at $4,023. A sustained bearish move under $4,023 would open the door to a test of the late October 2025 level at $3,888.
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