Cardano Flat as Whale Buying Fights Derivatives Headwinds

Key Moments

Whale Accumulation During ADA Pullback

Cardano (ADA) is stabilizing near $0.158 on Monday following a sharp 14% slide over the previous week. On-chain figures from Santiment indicate that some large holders used the latest downturn to increase exposure, even as spot prices remained under pressure.

Santiment’s Supply Distribution data highlights that wallets categorized as whales, with holdings between 10 million and 100 million ADA (blue line), have purchased a combined 370 million tokens since June 15. Over the same timeframe, addresses with between 100,000 and 1 million ADA (red line) and those with 1 million to 10 million ADA (yellow line) reduced their holdings by a total of 10 million tokens.

This divergence suggests that one segment of large holders may have capitulated during the decline, whereas the larger cohort stepped in to accumulate at lower prices. The buying on weakness points to sustained long-term interest from major holders and could offer some downside cushioning. However, this accumulation has not yet translated into a short-term price rebound for ADA.

Derivatives Indicators Signal Conflicted Market Views

In the derivatives market, sentiment around Cardano appears uneven. According to CoinGlass, ADA’s long-to-short ratio stands at 0.40 on Monday, the lowest reading in more than a month. A ratio below 1 indicates that a greater share of positions is aligned with further downside, underlining a bearish bias among derivatives traders.

At the same time, funding dynamics show a different tone. CoinGlass data on the OI-Weighted Funding Rate for ADA turned positive on Monday, registering 0.0050%. A positive funding rate implies that long positions are paying shorts and is typically associated with a more optimistic stance among leveraged traders.

The combination of a depressed long-to-short ratio and positive funding underscores a lack of consensus. Investors appear divided, with no clear directional conviction emerging from derivatives markets.

Technical Picture: Recovery Attempts Face Multiple Barriers

From a technical perspective, Cardano’s price around $0.158 on Monday reflects a continued bearish short-term tone. ADA remains firmly below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which sit at $0.204, $0.236, and $0.311, respectively, reinforcing the broader downward trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned near 31, pointing to weak, though not extreme, bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is slightly positive, which hints more at moderating downside pressure than a convincing bullish reversal.

Key Technical Levels for ADA

Multiple Fibonacci levels and moving averages are clustering overhead, shaping a layered resistance structure, while a nearby Fibonacci anchor provides the primary downside reference.

On the upside, the first resistance appears near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement close to $0.181. Above that, the 38.2% retracement around $0.202, together with the 50-day EMA at $0.204, forms a tight supply area that could challenge any early rebound.

A more substantial resistance band sits in the $0.230–$0.240 range, where several technical markers converge: the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.235, the downtrend trendline break price at $0.235, horizontal resistance at $0.236, and the 100-day EMA at $0.236. Beyond this cluster, additional hurdles emerge near $0.245 and then higher in the $0.288–$0.299 region, ahead of the 200-day EMA at $0.311.

On the downside, the primary structural support is located at the Fibonacci anchor around $0.148. If current levels fail to hold, that zone is where buyers may attempt to arrest further weakness.