Key Moments
- WTI trades around $84.65-$84.70, hovering near its weakest level since April 17 after a sharp selloff.
- Conflicting signals over a potential US-Iran peace deal and tanker tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have injected uncertainty into price action.
- Technical indicators point to a bearish near-term bias while WTI remains below the $85.00 area and 100-day SMA.
Prices Stabilize Near Recent Lows
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the reference grade for US Crude Oil, is struggling to draw sustained buying interest and is trading close to its lowest level since April 17, marked earlier in the Asian session on Friday. The contract is quoted around the $84.65-$84.70 band, down 0.50% on the day, with sellers showing less conviction as traders assess the outlook for a potential US-Iran peace agreement.
Mixed US-Iran Developments Stir Volatility
Market sentiment turned sharply on Thursday after US President Donald Trump stated that an agreement had been reached with Iran and that the final document could be signed soon, possibly as early as the weekend. The comments sparked a heavy bout of selling across Crude Oil markets.
However, Iran later responded that it had not made a final decision on any agreement, clouding expectations for a rapid breakthrough. In addition, Iranian forces prevented a tanker from passing through the key Strait of Hormuz without coordination, keeping geopolitical risk premiums in focus and offering some support to WTI prices.
Technical Picture Favors Sellers
From a chart perspective, the short-term setup remains negative after WTI convincingly slipped below horizontal support at $85.00, an area that also aligned with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The move suggests bears currently retain the upper hand.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned near 40, indicating ongoing soft momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is in negative territory, reinforcing a downside-leaning tone. These conditions preserve the broader pullback that began after buyers failed to hold prices above the $90.00 threshold.
| Technical Level / Indicator | Comment |
|---|---|
| $85.00 / 100-day SMA | Former support now acting as initial resistance |
| $90.00 | Upside level where prior advance stalled |
| RSI (daily) near 40 | Signals weak momentum, consistent with bearish bias |
| MACD (daily) negative | Confirms downside-skewed technical tone |
Key Levels to Watch
On the upside, the 100-day SMA, located just above the $85.00 area, is the first technical barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to alleviate immediate selling pressure. A sustained break above that zone on a daily close would be needed to create room for a move back toward the $90 region.
As long as WTI remains capped below the $85.00/100-day SMA band, any rebounds are likely to be treated as corrective within a broader consolidation phase. In that scenario, the contract stays exposed to further declines, including potential retests of recent lows below the $80.00 handle.
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