Dogecoin Pressured as Whales Cut Exposure, Derivatives

Key Moments

Large Holders Rotate Out of DOGE

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading near $0.0850 at press time on Monday, consolidating after a 5% recovery the previous day from the February 6 low at $0.0800. On-chain data indicates that investors controlling between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE have scaled back their positions to a five-month trough, creating downward pressure on price. At the same time, DOGE futures Open Interest has slipped to its lowest level in two months, underscoring softer retail participation amid a broader market pullback.

Data from Santiment shows that Dogecoin, described as the oldest meme token in the crypto universe, is becoming less prominent in the portfolios of so-called smart money. Wallets holding more than 1 billion DOGE – typically associated with exchanges – now account for 47.06% of the circulating supply, up from a low of 45.71% recorded on April 18. While the increase in the share held by potential exchange-linked addresses does not necessarily equate to direct selling pressure, the concurrent reduction by large non-exchange holders is weighing on sentiment.

Addresses with balances between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE have cut their ownership to 22.95% of total circulating supply, down from 24.63% on April 25. This reduction marks the weakest exposure by these large holders in five months, highlighting a meaningful decline in conviction toward DOGE.

Weakening Futures Positioning Signals Fading Retail Interest

On the derivatives side, speculative appetite around Dogecoin is fading. CoinGlass figures show DOGE futures Open Interest hovering just above the $1 billion mark after a sustained decline from the May 15 peak of $1.76 billion. This slide in the notional value of outstanding contracts to a two-month low points to a diminished willingness to take risk in DOGE futures.

Should Open Interest continue to contract sharply, it could intensify selling pressure in the spot market and bring the $0.0800 level back into focus as a critical support area.

Technical Picture: Key Levels Around $0.0800 and $0.1000

Technically, Dogecoin is changing hands near $0.0857 at press time on Monday, trading just below $0.0879. That level now acts as resistance after previously serving as support at the February 11 low. The token is consolidating beneath $0.0879 following Sunday’s 5% advance, which came after a Dragonfly Doji candlestick – described as long-tailed and short-bodied – formed around the February 6 low at $0.0800, signaling a short-term attempt by buyers to defend that zone.

From a chart-based standpoint, this rebound has the potential to turn the recent sharp decline into a minor accumulation phase, opening the door for a possible upside reversal. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 30 and has started to edge higher from oversold territory, indicating that downside momentum may be stretched. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is still below the signal line and in negative territory, pointing to ongoing bearish momentum.

If DOGE closes a daily candle below $0.0800, it would expose a further 12% downside risk toward the January 8, 2024 low at $0.0741, with additional support seen at the November 1, 2023 low at $0.0654.

On the upside, the first barrier for buyers remains $0.0879. Above that, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $0.0989 aligns closely with the $0.1000 psychological level, forming a confluence of resistance that bulls would need to overcome to shift the medium-term bias.