Key Moments
- Ethereum traded at $1,760 as prolonged selling by long-term holders pushed the price below $1,800.
- On-chain data showed rising realized losses from underwater coins and sustained risk-off behavior since April.
- Despite price weakness, derivatives positioning remained heavily long, with open interest above 15 million ETH and positive funding rates.
Long-Term Holders Step Up Selling as ETH Breaks Lower
Ethereum (ETH) traded at $1,760 after sliding beneath the $1,800 level on Wednesday, marking its first break below that threshold since May 2025. The drop followed intensified spot market selling and increased distribution by long-term holders.
On-chain signals pointed to a notable shift in behavior from this investor group. The Age Consumed metric – which monitors the movement of previously dormant tokens associated with long-term holders (LTHs) – recorded sharp increases over the past two days as prices retreated. This pattern reflected heavier selling from LTHs, a dynamic that has historically coincided with periods of accelerated downside pressure.
Underwater Coins Drive Realized Losses
Recent flows suggested that much of the selling originated from positions currently at a loss. The network’s realized profit/loss data showed that the majority of coins changing hands were underwater, with realized losses described as moderate on a daily basis but persistent since April.
This ongoing, loss-driven distribution underscored a risk-off stance among holders over the past several months, as participants continued to reduce exposure despite unfavorable price levels.
| On-chain / Market Metric | Recent Signal | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Age Consumed | Spikes over the past two days | Increased selling from long-term holders |
| Realized Profit/Loss | Consistent realized losses since April | Distribution dominated by underwater coins and risk-off sentiment |
| US spot ETH ETFs flows | Sixteen straight days of net outflows | Sustained institutional selling pressure |
| Derivatives open interest | Above 15 million ETH | Large, active positioning despite price decline |
| Funding rates | Remain positive | Market skewed toward long positions |
Institutional Outflows Contrast With Heavy Derivatives Longs
Institutional flows painted a similarly cautious backdrop. US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered sixteen consecutive sessions of net outflows, their longest such streak since their launch in July 2024, based on FarSide Investors data cited in the report.
In derivatives, positioning remained robust despite the spot price weakness. Open interest stayed above 15 million ETH, and funding rates were still positive, indicating that long positions continued to dominate the futures market even as ETH retreated.
“The rise in funding rates to these levels suggests that many traders anticipate a near-term price rebound, prompting them to increasingly enter long positions. However, this optimism coincides with Bitcoin’s continued decline and the overall weakness in the market, creating a discrepancy between price action and trader behavior in the derivatives market,” noted CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain in a Wednesday report.
“Furthermore, high funding levels during a weak market may indicate that the market is overcrowded with long positions. This means that any further decline in Bitcoin could force traders to close their positions, potentially exacerbating volatility and putting downward pressure on Ethereum and other altcoins.”
Technical Setup: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s daily chart reflected a firmly bearish structure. The price traded well beneath the 20-, 50-, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which were clustered between roughly $2,030 and $2,245. This alignment highlighted a broader, entrenched downtrend.
Momentum indicators showed deeply oversold conditions. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered near 21, while the Stochastic oscillator also sat in oversold territory. These signals suggested that any initial recovery from current levels would likely be corrective and constrained within an overall downside bias.
Key Levels to Watch: $1,740 Support in Focus
On the upside, the first resistance level appeared at $1,909. Above that, additional hurdles were identified at $2,018 and the 20-day EMA near $2,030. A more substantial supply zone formed around the 50-day EMA at $2,134 and the horizontal resistance at $2,107, followed by higher caps at $2,211, the 100-day EMA near $2,244, and $2,388.
On the downside, immediate support was located at $1,740, a level that could prompt a short-term bounce. A clear break below that area would expose $1,524, and a deeper decline from there could bring the structural base around $1,404 into view.
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