Key Moments
- WTI trades in the mid-$96.00s after holding above the $95.00 psychological area, a near two-week low.
- Key support confluence sits around the 200-period SMA at $95.09 and an upward trend line near $95.49 on the 4-hour chart.
- RSI near 36 and negative MACD indicate increasing downside pressure unless WTI clears resistance at $100.42.
Technical Picture: Support Cluster Near $95.00 in Focus
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil contract, remains under pressure for a third straight session, trading in the mid-$96.00s during Friday’s Asian trade. Despite the recent decline, prices continue to hold above the $95.00 round figure, which marked a nearly two-week low reached in the prior session.
From a chart perspective, WTI is hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April advance, while staying just above a dense band of technical support. The 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour timeframe stands at $95.09, with an upward-sloping trend-line support located around $95.49. Together, these levels continue to underpin the broader bullish structure despite the recent pullback.
Momentum Indicators Tilt Bearish
Momentum readings, however, point to growing downside risk. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to 36, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory. These signals indicate that selling pressure is building and that any near-term recovery attempts may face headwinds.
Upside progress is likely to remain constrained unless buyers can drive prices convincingly above the nearby resistance defined by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $100.42. A sustained move beyond that level would be required to reestablish a path toward the recent highs.
Key Levels: Fibonacci Markers and Moving Averages
On the downside, the first notable support is aligned with the 38.2% retracement at $96.32. Below that, the former trend-line region around $95.49 and the 200-period SMA at $95.09 form a critical technical cluster. A clear break below this zone would open the door to deeper Fibonacci support levels at $93.00 and $89.69, signaling a more decisive shift in the medium-term bias toward sellers.
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate resistance | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement | $100.42 |
| Near-term support | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | $96.32 |
| Trend-line support | Upward-sloping support | $95.49 |
| Major moving average | 200-period SMA (H4) | $95.09 |
| Lower Fibonacci support | Fibonacci level | $93.00 |
| Deeper Fibonacci support | Fibonacci level | $89.69 |
A senior Iranian official said that no deal has been reached with the United States (US), but gaps have been narrowed. Market participants remain doubtful about the prospects of a US-Iran agreement amid substantial differences concerning Tehran’s nuclear program and a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. These ongoing geopolitical risks continue to lend support to crude oil prices and argue for caution among traders positioning aggressively on the downside.
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