Key Moments
- HYPE is trading below $39 after breaking and closing beneath a key rising trendline earlier in the week.
- CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for HYPE stands at 0.70 on Thursday, signaling a prevailing bearish positioning despite positive funding rates.
- A daily close under the 200-day EMA at $37.88 could open the way to further losses toward $36.09, with momentum indicators already turning negative.
Derivatives Data Highlights Investor Indecision
Hyperliquid (HYPE) continues to retreat, changing hands below $39 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping under a key rising trendline earlier this week. Signals from the derivatives market are mixed and are constraining attempts at a meaningful rebound.
Data from CoinGlass shows the long-to-short ratio for HYPE at 0.70 on Thursday, the lowest reading in over a month. With the ratio below 1, more traders are positioned for downside than upside, pointing to a broadly bearish stance.
At the same time, funding rate dynamics point in the opposite direction. CoinGlass’ OI-Weighted Funding Rate for HYPE turned positive on Wednesday and is at 0.0078% on Thursday. A positive funding rate indicates that long positions are paying shorts, which is typically associated with a more optimistic view on price.
This blend of a bearish positioning skew and supportive funding conditions underscores uncertainty among HYPE participants and a lack of strong conviction in either direction, reducing the probability of a durable recovery in the near term.
| Metric | Latest Reading | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| CoinGlass Long-to-Short Ratio | 0.70 | More traders are short than long, reflecting bearish sentiment |
| OI-Weighted Funding Rate | 0.0078% | Longs are paying shorts, indicating improving sentiment |
Hyperliquid Price Outlook: Bears Maintain the Upper Hand
From a technical perspective, sellers have strengthened their grip. Hyperliquid’s price broke below a rising trendline on Tuesday, drawn by linking multiple highs from the end of January, and then dropped by more than 7% over the following day. As of Thursday, HYPE is still under pressure, trading below $39 as the correction continues.
Downside levels are closely tied to key moving averages. If the current retreat pushes HYPE to close beneath the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $37.88, the decline could deepen, with scope for a move toward the 200-day EMA at $36.09.
| Technical Level / Indicator | Value | Technical Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Price (time of writing, Thursday) | Below $39 | Extending ongoing correction |
| 200-day EMA (first key support) | $37.88 | Close below could signal further downside |
| 200-day EMA (lower level cited) | $36.09 | Potential next target if weakness continues |
| 50-day EMA (near-term resistance) | $40.11 | Upside objective if price rebounds |
Momentum Indicators Confirm Bearish Bias
Momentum gauges on the daily chart reinforce the negative tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37, below the neutral midpoint, indicating that sellers currently dominate. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily timeframe registered a bearish crossover on Monday, signaling a deteriorating outlook.
For the downside scenario, traders are focused on whether HYPE can hold above the 200-day EMA at $37.88. A decisive break below that threshold could pave the way for an extension of losses toward $36.09. On the upside, if the token manages to stabilize and rebound, a move toward the 50-day EMA at $40.11 would be the next area of interest for market participants monitoring a potential recovery.
Potential Recovery Levels
While bears currently control momentum, the price path is not one-sided. Should Hyperliquid stage a recovery from current levels, the 50-day EMA at $40.11 represents a key resistance zone and an initial objective for any sustained upside attempt.
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