Euro Holds Firm vs Pound on UK Political Uncertainty

Key Moments

EUR/GBP touched a three-week high at 0.8697 before easing to around 0.8679, up about 0.25% on the day.
UK political pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer weighed on the Pound, while the Euro also struggled amid Middle East-related energy concerns.
The cross remains capped beneath the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, with initial resistance at 0.8685 and key support near 0.8600.

EUR/GBP Advances as Markets Weigh UK Political Risks

EUR/GBP stayed firm on Tuesday after reaching a three-week peak of 0.8697 earlier in the session, as investors evaluated intensifying political tensions in the United Kingdom and stalled US-Iran talks. At the time of writing, the pair was trading near 0.8679, representing an intraday gain of roughly 0.25%.

The British Pound (GBP) was broadly weaker, pressured by growing scrutiny of Prime Minister Keir Starmer following Labour’s significant setbacks in recent local elections. Reports indicated that 78 of Labour’s 403 Members of Parliament had called on Starmer to step down, just below the threshold of 81 MPs required to initiate a formal leadership challenge. Starmer has pushed back against these demands, stating that he will “get on with governing.”

Euro Sentiment Curbed by Energy Shock Fears

While political uncertainty in the UK underpinned EUR/GBP, the Euro (EUR) itself struggled to build a sustained advance. Market participants remained cautious about the potential economic consequences of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly for the Eurozone.

The region’s pronounced vulnerability to higher energy prices and supply disruptions associated with the Strait of Hormuz has heightened worries about slower growth and renewed inflation pressures. These concerns are limiting the scope for a more pronounced EUR/GBP upside in the near term, despite the Pound’s current defensive posture.

Data Calendar: Eurozone and UK Releases in Focus

Attention is turning to upcoming macroeconomic releases from both the Eurozone and the UK for fresh directional cues.

On Wednesday, the Eurozone is scheduled to publish preliminary Q1 Employment Change and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, alongside March Industrial Production data.

In the UK, a busy slate of data is due on Thursday, including monthly GDP for March, preliminary Q1 GDP, as well as Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production readings.

EUR/GBP Technical Picture: Capped by Key Moving Averages

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP maintains a restrained short-term profile, with price action contained below both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward 54, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has edged back into slightly positive territory. These factors point to modest bullish momentum, but the recovery remains constrained by the overhead moving average cluster.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 0.8685, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.8703. A more pronounced barrier emerges at horizontal resistance around 0.8730.

On the downside, a key structural support zone is identified at the 0.8600 horizontal level. A decisive move below that area would open the door to a deeper corrective phase, despite the current attempt by the cross to stabilize.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Pound Sterling Performance Against Major Currencies

The following table shows the percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against major currencies today. According to the data, the Pound showed its strongest performance versus the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.37%	0.65%	0.22%	0.20%	0.36%	0.27%	0.43%
EUR	-0.37%		0.27%	-0.13%	-0.20%	-0.02%	-0.11%	0.07%
GBP	-0.65%	-0.27%		-0.43%	-0.48%	-0.30%	-0.36%	-0.21%
JPY	-0.22%	0.13%	0.43%		-0.06%	0.10%	0.03%	0.18%
CAD	-0.20%	0.20%	0.48%	0.06%		0.16%	0.08%	0.23%
AUD	-0.36%	0.02%	0.30%	-0.10%	-0.16%		-0.07%	0.07%
NZD	-0.27%	0.11%	0.36%	-0.03%	-0.08%	0.07%		0.15%
CHF	-0.43%	-0.07%	0.21%	-0.18%	-0.23%	-0.07%	-0.15%

The heat map indicates percentage changes between major currency pairs. The base currency is selected from the left-hand column, and the quote currency from the top row. For example, choosing the British Pound on the left and moving to the US Dollar column shows the performance of GBP (base)/USD (quote).