Key Moments
- WTI futures on NYMEX climb 5.2% in Asian trading to around $96.60. The move comes as optimism over a near-term US-Iran ceasefire fades.
- President Donald Trump calls Iran’s reply to a US peace proposal “totally unacceptable.” This weakens hopes for a permanent agreement.
- WTI rises back above its 20-day EMA at $95.39. This shift strengthens the short-term bullish bias and opens room toward $100 and $107.35.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Oil Higher
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX surge at the start of the week. Prices trade near $96.60 in Asian hours. The contract gains 5.2% as markets react to fading hopes of a lasting US-Iran agreement.
Sentiment shifts quickly as traders reassess geopolitical risk. First, expectations for a permanent ceasefire weaken. Then, buyers step back into the market and push crude higher.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump comments on Iran’s response to a US peace proposal. He calls it “totally unacceptable” on Truth Social. As a result, confidence in an imminent deal drops sharply.
Iran’s Demands and Strait of Hormuz Risk
Iran outlines several conditions in its response. It seeks recognition of authority near the Strait of Hormuz. It also demands compensation for war damage, access to frozen assets, and sanctions relief, according to CNN and state media reports.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern. It carries nearly 20% of global energy flows. Therefore, traders worry that weaker diplomacy could raise the risk of supply disruptions through this chokepoint.
Macro Backdrop and Fed Policy Concerns
Markets also reassess US monetary policy expectations. Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates higher for longer. This view reflects inflation risks and strong recent labor data.
Even so, macro factors take a back seat for now. Geopolitics drives most of the price action in crude oil. Consequently, energy markets react more to headlines than to economic data.
WTI Technical Setup
WTI trades around $96.60 in Asian trading. The price moves back above the 20-day EMA at $95.39. This signals a stronger short-term structure and suggests consolidation rather than reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 52.45. It shows neutral conditions. However, momentum still tilts slightly positive.
| Technical Indicator / Level | Value / Comment |
|---|---|
| Last traded area (Asian session) | ~$96.60 |
| 20-day EMA | $95.39 — key short-term support |
| RSI | 52.45 — neutral with mild bullish bias |
| Downside break target | Near $90 |
| Upside target | $100 psychological level |
| Major resistance | $107.35 (April 30 high) |
On the downside, traders watch the 20-day EMA at $95.39. If price breaks below it, selling pressure may increase. In that case, WTI could slide toward the $90 area.
On the upside, buyers retain control while price holds above the 20-day EMA. If momentum continues, WTI may test $100 next. Beyond that, the April 30 high at $107.35 becomes the next major resistance.
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