AUD/USD Holds Near Highs Ahead of RBA Decision

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: May 4, 2026

Key Moments

AUD/USD is consolidating above 0.7200, close to its strongest level since June 2022, after recent strong gains.
Expectations of a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia support the Australian Dollar, while US-Iran tensions lend strength to the US Dollar and limit further upside.
Technical indicators, including RSI near 62 and a positive MACD histogram, point to sustained bullish momentum unless support near 0.7137 breaks decisively.

Australian Dollar Pauses After Breakout Above 0.7200

The AUD/USD pair has entered a period of bullish consolidation at the start of the new week, trading steadily above the 0.7200 level. The pair is holding just below the peak reached on Friday, which marked its highest level since June 2022. Ongoing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting on Tuesday continues to provide support for the Australian Dollar.

At the same time, escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are supporting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. This is tempering further gains in AUD/USD as markets position ahead of the RBA’s policy announcement.

Technical Landscape: Bullish Bias but Cautious Tone

From a technical perspective, the pair’s recent advance has been reinforced by a rebound from the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Friday’s clear break and close above the 0.7200 horizontal resistance level have been viewed as an important bullish catalyst for AUD/USD.

Momentum indicators are signaling that the positive trend remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 62, indicating solid upward momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is marginally in positive territory, suggesting that buying pressure persists.

These signals collectively support the view that the pair’s climb from the late-March swing low could extend further. Under this framework, any near-term pullback is expected to attract fresh buying interest and remain contained, at least initially.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Immediate downside protection is seen around the 100-period EMA near 0.7137, which has recently acted as an important dynamic support. A decisive break below this level would indicate that bullish momentum is fading and could clear the path for a more pronounced corrective decline.

Technical Indicator / Level	Reading / Description
Price Zone	Consolidating above 0.7200, near highest since June 2022
RSI (4-hour)	Around 62, indicating firm but not overbought momentum
MACD Histogram (4-hour)	Slightly positive, signaling ongoing upside pressure
Immediate Support	100-period EMA around 0.7137

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Focus on RBA: Interest Rate Decision in Spotlight

The upcoming RBA interest rate decision is a central focus for AUD traders. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy stance at the end of its eight scheduled meetings each year. Market interpretation of the decision typically hinges on how policymakers frame their view of inflation and economic conditions.

If the RBA adopts a hawkish stance on inflation and raises interest rates, it is generally considered supportive for the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if the central bank maintains a dovish tone toward the domestic outlook and leaves rates unchanged or cuts them, this is usually viewed as negative for AUD.