Key Moments:
- EUR/USD trades with a mild negative bias but continues to hold above the 1.1700 level.
- Safe-haven demand for the USD is supported by uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks, while FOMC expectations limit further gains.
- Key technical levels cluster between 1.1595 and the mid-1.1800s, with mixed indicators arguing for caution.
EUR/USD Softens but Clings to 1.1700 Handle
The EUR/USD pair is trading slightly lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, extending the prior day’s pullback from just above the mid-1.1700s. Despite the modest retreat, the pair continues to trade above the psychologically important 1.1700 level.
Investor focus on the unresolved second round of US-Iran peace talks is underpinning demand for the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset, creating a headwind for the euro. At the same time, market expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026 appear to be acting as a counterbalance, limiting the USD’s upside ahead of the two-day FOMC policy meeting concluding on Wednesday. This combination is helping EUR/USD hold above the round figure.
Technical Picture: Constructive but Not Decisive
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD maintains a modestly bullish stance as it trades above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance from the late March low. These factors continue to provide underlying support.
Momentum indicators, however, are sending mixed signals. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is slightly positive and sits above its signal line, suggesting that upward momentum remains in place, albeit without strong conviction. In contrast, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped back toward the mid-40s, indicating waning bullish momentum.
The pair’s inability overnight to sustain gains near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by a subsequent decline, reinforces the need for caution before positioning for a more pronounced move higher.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
On the upside, initial resistance is located at 1.1749, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Beyond that, a more significant resistance zone is seen around the recent cycle high area just ahead of the mid-1.1800s.
On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1690. Below this, additional support levels are clustered at the 50.0% retracement around 1.1643 and the 61.8% retracement near 1.1595. A more pronounced decline toward 1.1528 and 1.1442 would likely only materialize if the pair breaks convincingly below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
The table below presents the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) versus major currencies today. The data show that the USD has been strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | 0.06 | 0.03 | -0.22 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| EUR | -0.06 | — | -0.04 | -0.30 | -0.02 | -0.04 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| GBP | -0.03 | 0.04 | — | -0.24 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| JPY | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.24 | — | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| CAD | -0.06 | 0.02 | -0.03 | -0.29 | — | -0.02 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| AUD | -0.04 | 0.04 | -0.02 | -0.28 | 0.02 | — | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| NZD | -0.15 | -0.04 | -0.10 | -0.36 | -0.06 | -0.09 | — | -0.01 |
| CHF | -0.12 | -0.06 | -0.10 | -0.35 | -0.07 | -0.12 | 0.00 | — |
The heat map indicates percentage moves among the major currencies. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column, and the quote currency is taken from the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar as the base from the left column and moving across to the Japanese Yen cell provides the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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