Key Moments
- Danske Research Team keeps its EUR/SEK forecast unchanged, seeing the pair at 11.00 over a 6-12 month horizon.
- EUR/SEK is currently trading near 10.80, with NOK/SEK back above 0.98 and EUR/DKK close to 7.4732.
- Comments from the Riksbank highlight a mixed inflation picture in Sweden, but are not prompting a change in Danske Bank’s FX projections.
Stable EUR/SEK Forecast Maintained
Danske Research Team is maintaining its existing view on EUR/SEK, keeping the forecast path unchanged. The currency pair is described as trading comfortably around 10.80, and the bank continues to project a move toward 11.00 over a 6-12 month horizon.
According to the analysis, this profile reflects a relatively stable backdrop for the Swedish Krona (SEK), with no significant change in the underlying fundamental picture to justify an adjustment to the outlook.
Riksbank Commentary on Swedish Inflation Dynamics
The assessment comes against the backdrop of recent remarks from the Riksbank. In Sweden, the Riksbank’s Per Jansson said the food VAT cut is exerting downward pressure on inflation, while higher energy costs are pushing inflation up. He therefore noted that this supply shock can largely be looked through, though vigilance remains warranted. He added that the situation remains different from 2022 as inflation pressure is now lower, demand is weaker and SEK is stronger.
These comments are being weighed alongside current market pricing, but are not leading Danske Bank to alter its EUR/SEK trajectory. As noted in the report: “Meanwhile, EUR/SEK is comfortable around 10.80 for the time being.”
FX Forecasts for EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK
Danske Bank reiterates its unchanged forecast profile for EUR/SEK: “For EUR/SEK, we leave our forecast profile unchanged, forecasting EUR/SEK at 11.00 in 6-12M.”
The bank also outlines its stance on EUR/NOK, emphasizing caution about the recent performance of the Norwegian Krone: “For EUR/NOK, we remain skeptical with respect to the longevity of the rally and thus leave our forecast profile unchanged this month keeping an upward slope in 6M and 12M.”
Cross-Market Levels: NOK/SEK and EUR/DKK
Movements in related Nordic and European crosses are also highlighted. As a result of recent price action, NOK/SEK is back above 0.98. At the same time, EUR/DKK is described as trading close to the 7.4732 level.
| Currency Pair | Current Indication | Forecast / Comment |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/SEK | Around 10.80 | Projected at 11.00 in 6-12M; forecast profile unchanged |
| EUR/NOK | Not specified | Upward-sloping profile in 6M and 12M; skepticism on rally longevity |
| NOK/SEK | Back above 0.98 | Reflects recent moves in NOK vs SEK |
| EUR/DKK | Close to 7.4732 | Described as stuck near this level |
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