Bernstein Flags Top U.S. Consumer Picks for 2026

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Strategic View on U.S. Consumer Sectors

Bernstein analysts have laid out their top U.S. consumer sector ideas for 2026 and are recommending a modest overweight allocation to both Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples, with a stronger tilt toward Staples. The firm’s fundamental research team is focusing on TJX, TPR, NKE, MAR, H, RCL, WMT, COST and PFGC as favored names for this year.

According to the report, both consumer sectors have lagged the broader equity market since the onset of conflict at the end of February, even though Consumer Staples are often viewed as a defensive refuge during periods of heightened uncertainty.

Bernstein’s Featured Consumer Stock Picks

TJX Companies (TJX): Off-Price Strength and Consistent Execution

Bernstein maintains its positive stance on TJX Companies (TJX), which it also endorsed in 2025. The off-price retailer is seen as well placed to capture spending related to tax refunds and to benefit when consumers trade down in a high-inflation backdrop. The analysts highlight that TJX taps into higher income consumer spending, is relatively insulated from oil price swings, and has sufficient pricing power to pass through supply-side cost inflation.

The company has delivered steady execution, with earnings per share exceeding expectations for the last 12 consecutive quarters. At the time of publishing, TJX shares were up 2.5% year-to-date, following a 27% increase last year.

The TJX Companies reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that surpassed analyst forecasts. The company also announced a 13% increase to its quarterly dividend.

Tapestry (TPR): Luxury Brand Share Gains

Tapestry (TPR), another carryover recommendation from 2025, remains among Bernstein’s preferred names. The firm notes that TPR has been steadily capturing market share in luxury from younger consumers, while European brands have been losing ground. Similar to TJX, Tapestry benefits from spending by higher income consumers, shows limited sensitivity to oil prices, and has meaningful pricing power.

Bernstein points to strong management quality and solid share price performance. At the time of publishing, TPR was up 18% year-to-date, after advancing 96% last year.

In recent news, Tapestry reported strong fiscal second-quarter results, with both earnings and revenue exceeding expectations, driven by a 25% revenue increase in its Coach brand.

Nike (NKE): Watching for Recovery Catalysts

For Nike (NKE), Bernstein expects gains to be more concentrated in the latter part of 2026. Following an earnings reduction in March 2026, the firm believes that estimates have likely bottomed. The analysts point to early signs of improvement, including robust growth in North America, better sellout trends in China, and signs that declines in the Jordan brand are stabilizing.

Bernstein identifies the upcoming June earnings release as the next major catalyst, with an investor day planned in the Fall providing an additional potential driver.

Nike has seen several analyst downgrades, including from HSBC and Piper Sandler, citing uncertainty over its business recovery. The company also announced the departure of its chief innovation officer after less than a year in the role.

Marriott International (MAR): Leveraging Solid U.S. Travel Demand

Marriott International (MAR) is supported by resilient domestic U.S. travel trends. February 2026 delivered the strongest U.S. RevPAR growth in more than a year at 4.3%, while luxury properties continued to outperform, with Luxury RevPAR up 6.6% in February.

Bernstein favors companies with significant U.S. exposure to capture near-term substitution of international travel with domestic trips, benefit from a robust events calendar including the North American FIFA World Cup and the 250th birthday of the U.S., and take advantage of relatively easy year-over-year comparisons.

Marriott International has received several price target increases from firms including Goldman Sachs and BMO Capital, citing a strong outlook. The company also announced it will take over management of The Resort at Kapalua Bay in Maui, with plans to rebrand it as a St. Regis hotel.

Hyatt Hotels (H): Benefiting From Travel Substitution Patterns

Hyatt Hotels (H) is viewed similarly to Marriott in terms of benefiting from robust domestic demand and substitution from international to U.S. destinations. Hyatt indicated that after volatility in Mexico, U.S. travelers shifted trips from Mexico to the Caribbean and to warm-weather domestic markets such as California, Florida, and Arizona.

Bernstein anticipates that year-over-year comparisons should become more favorable from April onward as the sector moves past tougher prior-year benchmarks.

Hyatt Hotels announced that CEO Mark S. Hoplamazian will succeed Thomas J. Pritzker as Chairman of the Board. Mizuho recently lowered its price target on the company’s stock, though it maintained an Outperform rating.

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL): Geopolitics Weigh on Bookings, Then Ease

In the cruise space, Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is navigating near-term volatility. Cruise bookings slowed in early March as conflict in the Middle East intensified, and Bernstein’s cruise price tracker showed some pricing pressure. However, more recent channel checks suggest that trends have partially recovered into April as customers have adjusted to geopolitical developments.

Bernstein nonetheless maintains some near-term caution on mainstream cruise operators, pointing to oil price volatility and the March booking pause as risk factors.

Royal Caribbean Cruises completed a $2.5 billion public offering of senior unsecured notes and appointed a new member to its Board of Directors. JPMorgan lowered its price target on the company, citing its outlook on financial performance.

Walmart (WMT): Inflation and Recession Hedge Within Retail

For Walmart (WMT), Bernstein argues that renewed inflation is overall supportive of mass and club retailers that offer strong value. The firm expects Walmart to extend its role as a defensive holding through 2026, building on momentum from 2025.

If inflation persists and eventually contributes to a recession, Bernstein believes mass and club retailers are likely to continue a historical pattern of gaining market share during downturns.