WTI Drops Under $99 as Geopolitics Cloud Supply

Key Moments

WTI crude traded near $98.90 per barrel in Asian hours on Monday after three consecutive sessions of gains.
Iran-backed Houthi strikes on Israel and threats to Red Sea shipping heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions.
A sanctioned Russian tanker from the “shadow fleet” approached Cuba with a critical crude cargo amid a reported policy shift signaled by Trump.

WTI Pulls Back After Recent Rally

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices edged lower during Asian trading on Monday, hovering around $98.90 per barrel after advancing for three straight sessions. Despite the modest decline, market participants are focused on renewed supply risk, as optimism about a swift resolution to the Iran conflict has diminished.

This changing risk backdrop leaves room for crude prices to rebound, with traders reassessing the balance between geopolitical tensions and demand conditions.

Middle East Conflict Broadens With First Houthi Strikes on Israel

Geopolitical risk in the oil market intensified as Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend, marking a notable widening of the regional conflict. The group warned that operations would continue until actions against Iran and its allies cease.

Beyond the direct military dimension, the Houthis also represent a threat to critical energy routes and infrastructure. Their activities raise the risk of disruptions to shipping through the Red Sea and pose a danger to key Saudi energy facilities, deepening worries over potential supply interruptions to global crude markets.

U.S. Military Posture and Oil Resource Discussions Around Iran

At the same time, the United States is reportedly positioning itself for a drawn-out ground campaign in Iran, with thousands of troops being sent to the broader region. Against this backdrop, President Donald Trump has raised the possibility of seizing control of Iran’s oil assets, including the country’s main export terminal on Kharg Island. This discussion has been framed as echoing earlier U.S. actions in Venezuela.

Such commentary and military movements add another layer of uncertainty for oil supply dynamics tied to Iran and the broader Middle East.

Potential Shift in Cuba Policy Amid Russian Crude Shipment

On a separate geopolitical front, Trump signaled a change in approach toward Cuba, indicating that he does not oppose other countries shipping crude oil to the island. This stance comes as a sanctioned Russian tanker carrying a vital crude cargo moves toward Cuba, offering potential relief to an economy constrained by what has effectively functioned as a U.S.-led oil blockade.

The tanker, reportedly associated with Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” has been tracked off Cuba’s eastern shoreline and is expected to dock soon, according to Reuters. The anticipated delivery is seen as a critical boost to Cuba’s strained energy supplies.

Factor	Details	Potential Market Impact
WTI price action	Trading near $98.90 per barrel after three days of gains	Short-term pullback with scope for rebound on supply risk
Houthi strikes	First attacks on Israel and threats to Red Sea shipping and Saudi infrastructure	Heightened concern over regional supply disruptions
U.S.-Iran tensions	Reported preparation for prolonged ground campaign and talk of controlling Iranian oil assets	Increased geopolitical risk premium for crude
Cuba and Russian tanker	Trump signals no opposition to crude shipments as a sanctioned vessel nears Cuba	Marginal easing of Cuba’s energy strain; limited broader market effect

Understanding WTI Crude Oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil traded on international markets. The term WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major grades alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. It is often labeled “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively, characteristics that make it easier to refine.

WTI is produced in the United States and moved through the Cushing hub, widely known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World.” WTI serves as a key benchmark for global oil markets, and its price is frequently referenced in financial media and market analysis.

Key Drivers of WTI Price

As with other assets, WTI crude is primarily influenced by supply and demand dynamics:

Robust global growth can support higher oil demand, while weaker growth can weigh on consumption and prices.
Political instability, military conflicts, and sanctions can constrain supply and exert upward pressure on prices.
Decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding output levels are another critical factor.
The value of the U.S. dollar also matters, as oil is mostly traded in dollars. A weaker dollar can make oil more affordable for holders of other currencies, and a stronger dollar can have the opposite effect.

Impact of Inventory Data

Weekly inventory updates from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) are closely watched by oil traders. These reports provide insight into changes in crude stockpiles, reflecting shifts in supply and demand conditions.

A decline in inventories can indicate stronger demand or tighter supply, potentially pushing prices higher.
An increase in inventories can signal ample supply or weaker demand, which may pressure prices lower.

The API releases its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA on Wednesday. The two sets of data usually align closely, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. Because the EIA is a government agency, its figures are generally regarded as more reliable.

OPEC and Its Influence on WTI

OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is made up of 12 oil-producing nations that meet twice a year to determine production quotas for members. These decisions can significantly influence WTI pricing:

Reducing output quotas can tighten supply conditions and lift prices.
Increasing production targets can expand supply and weigh on prices.

OPEC+ refers to an extended grouping that includes ten additional non-OPEC producers, with Russia being the most prominent among them. The broader coalition’s coordinated actions further shape global oil supply conditions and, by extension, WTI price behavior.