Key Moments
- Gold (XAU/USD) rose to an intraday high near $4,465 during early European trading while the US Dollar slipped.
- Markets have largely ruled out further Fed rate cuts and are increasingly pricing in a potential hike by year-end.
- Technical signals remain bearish, with XAU/USD capped below its 100-day SMA around $4,630 and support seen near $4,380.
Spot Gold Edges Higher as Dollar Retreats
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its intraday climb in early European dealings on Thursday, reaching a new session peak around the $4,465 mark. The move coincided with a modest pullback in the US Dollar after US President Donald Trump announced a delay to strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and pushed back the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to April 6. The softer Greenback has provided a near-term boost to the precious metal, helping it retrace a notable portion of the prior session’s decline. However, the advance remains constrained amid growing expectations for higher global interest rates.
Hawkish Fed Pricing Limits Bullion’s Upside
Market participants appear increasingly convinced that leading central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are poised to maintain or adopt a more hawkish stance. Persistent geopolitical tensions are seen supporting elevated energy prices and feeding inflation concerns, reinforcing that view.
According to the current market narrative, traders have effectively removed the prospect of additional Fed rate cuts and are rapidly building positions for a possible rate hike by the end of the year. This backdrop is underpinning US Treasury yields and generally favoring the US Dollar. In turn, this environment is viewed as a headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold and argues for caution before expecting a sustained bullish extension in XAU/USD.
US-Iran Tensions Keep Risk Premium in Focus
Conflicting signals around the US-Iran situation continue to influence broader risk sentiment. Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, Trump said that Iran was “begging” to make a deal. Iranian officials, however, have denied holding talks with the US and said that there is no chance of a deal between the two adversaries. At the same time, the deployment of additional US troops has intensified speculation about the possibility of a ground operation.
These developments keep geopolitical risk elevated. While such tensions can underpin safe-haven assets, they may also bolster the US Dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency, potentially limiting further upside for gold prices.
Given this fundamental landscape and the prevailing bearish technical signals, many investors may prefer to wait for clear evidence of follow-through buying before positioning for a more durable recovery in XAU/USD from the four-month low recorded on Monday.
Bears Retain Technical Advantage in XAU/USD
The recent drop below the rising 100-day Simple Moving Average and the failure to reclaim that level this week reinforce the short-term negative technical outlook for gold. Downward momentum remains in force, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator still in negative territory and its line positioned below the signal line, underscoring persistent selling pressure despite brief attempts to stabilize.
The Relative Strength Index has rebounded from oversold territory but is still holding in the low-30s, pointing to tepid demand and suggesting that sellers may continue to dominate while prices remain capped beneath key moving averages. In this context, the 100-day SMA, located around $4,630, is likely to serve as an important immediate resistance area. Any recovery is expected to first encounter supply at this zone, followed by more substantial resistance near the recent congestion band around $4,820. A daily close above that region would be required to meaningfully soften the bearish tone and bring the $5,000 area into view.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold
On the downside, initial support is seen near the recent low around $4,380. A decisive move below that level could open the path toward the rising 200-day SMA, currently near $4,120, which is viewed as the next major support area. Holding above $4,380 would keep the recent decline in corrective territory, whereas a failure at that level would likely reinforce the prevailing bearish bias in XAU/USD.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
The following table shows the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) versus major counterparts today. Based on this snapshot, the US Dollar has been strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.18% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.09% | -0.10% | 0.15% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.14% | 0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.12% | -0.13% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.02% | -0.12% | -0.12% | 0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.16% | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.12% | -0.01% | 0.24% | |
| NZD | 0.18% | 0.10% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.25% | |
| CHF | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.11% | -0.14% | -0.12% | -0.24% | -0.25% |
The heat map should be read by selecting the base currency from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar in the left column and moving horizontally to the Japanese Yen cell provides the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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