Key Moments
- Shell projects global LNG demand to rise from 422 million tonnes per annum in 2025 to between 610 million and 780 million tonnes per annum by 2050.
- The forecast implies a 45% to 85% increase in LNG demand over a 25-year period, with Asia accounting for 70% of growth through 2040.
- LNG is expected to grow from just over 3% of primary energy supply to more than 4% by 2040 and hold close to that level in 2050.
Shell Outlines LNG Demand Trajectory to 2050
Investing.com — Shell said Monday that it expects global demand for liquefied natural gas to climb from 422 million tonnes per annum in 2025 to a range of 610 million tonnes per annum to 780 million tonnes per annum by 2050.
The energy group said this projected path equates to an increase of about 45% to 85% over the 25-year span from 2025 to 2050.
Investment Needs and Cost Positioning
Shell said that to satisfy even the lower end of its 2050 demand outlook, additional investment in supply will be needed in the 2030s and 2040s.
The company said its current portfolio of LNG facilities, along with new LNG developments, is competitively situated in the lower half of the industry cost curve.
Regional Growth Drivers and Energy Mix Share
Shell said that Asia is set to be the main engine of LNG demand growth through 2040, accounting for 70% of the increase over that period.
The company said liquefied natural gas currently makes up 14% of global natural gas supply, equivalent to just over 3% of primary energy supply. Shell expects this share of primary energy to rise to more than 4% by 2040 and to remain close to that level in 2050.
Forecast Overview
| Metric | Current / Baseline | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Global LNG demand (million tonnes per annum) | 422 in 2025 | 610 to 780 by 2050 |
| Demand growth over 25 years | – | Approximately 45% to 85% |
| Share of global natural gas supply | 14% | Not specified |
| Share of primary energy supply | Just over 3% | Over 4% by 2040, around that level in 2050 |
| Regional contribution to LNG demand growth to 2040 | – | Asia accounts for 70% of growth |
| Cost position of Shell LNG assets | – | Bottom half of industry cost curve |
| Additional supply investment | – | Required in the 2030s and 2040s |
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