Key Moments
- Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has progressively shut three production lines, affecting about 19% of its 1.6 million-ton-per-year capacity.
- Transit issues linked to the Strait of Hormuz have strained Middle East aluminum supply chains, limiting both exports and alumina feedstock flows.
- ING analysts see aluminum as structurally tight, with low inventories – particularly in Europe – likely keeping prices and regional premiums supported while disruptions continue.
Alba Capacity Curtailment Highlights Supply Risk
“Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has initiated a phased production shutdown, citing ongoing supply and transit disruptions stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The company said it shut three production lines, equivalent to around 19% of its 1.6 million‑tonne‑per‑year capacity, to conserve raw‑material inventories and stabilise operations.”
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that this phased curtailment at Alba is directly tied to logistical bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the smelter to scale back operations to safeguard raw material availability and maintain operational stability.
Middle East Supply Chains Under Pressure
“The curtailment highlights mounting strain on Middle East aluminium supply chains, with shipping disruptions constraining both metal exports and alumina feedstock flows. Coming after Alba’s force majeure declaration earlier this month, and alongside outages elsewhere in the region, the move reinforces tight physical conditions.”
According to the ING team, the combination of reduced output at Alba, earlier force majeure, and other regional outages has intensified physical tightness across Middle East aluminum flows, impacting both inbound and outbound trade.
Structural Tightness and Price Implications
“The shutdown reinforces our view that aluminium remains structurally tight, with limited buffers to absorb supply shocks. Beyond supporting outright prices, it should keep regional premiums elevated. This is particularly true in Europe, where low inventories and ongoing stock withdrawals indicate persistent physical tightness.”
“As long as Hormuz‑related disruptions persist, any price pullbacks are likely to be shallow, with tight spot availability continuing to underpin both prices and premia.”
Key Operational Metrics
| Producer | Action | Capacity Affected | Stated Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) | Phased production shutdown (three lines) | About 19% of 1.6 million-ton-per-year capacity | Supply and transit disruptions due to closure of the Strait of Hormuz; conserving raw-material inventories and stabilizing operations |
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