Key Moments
- Brent April futures traded at $72.54 per barrel and WTI at $66.89, rising 2.4% and 2.6% at 07:50 ET (12:50 GMT).
- U.S.-Iran nuclear talks ended without a deal, adding a risk premium tied to possible military escalation and supply disruption.
- Oil sales linked to a U.S.-Venezuela supply deal may reach $2 billion by end-February as Venezuela boosts output and exports.
Market Overview
Oil prices climbed on Friday after U.S.-Iran nuclear talks ended without agreement. As a result, fears of military escalation raised concerns about Middle East supply.
At 07:50 ET (12:50 GMT), Brent crude for April rose 2.4% to $72.54 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate gained 2.6% to $66.89.
Both benchmarks remain on track for solid February gains. Traders continue to react to geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions.
Futures Snapshot
| Contract | Delivery Month | Price | Move | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | April | $72.54 per barrel | +2.4% | 07:50 ET (12:50 GMT) |
| WTI | – | $66.89 per barrel | +2.6% | 07:50 ET (12:50 GMT) |
Iran-U.S. Negotiations Hit an Impasse
Talks between Washington and Tehran ended Thursday without a deal. However, mediator Oman said both sides plan to resume discussions soon. Technical meetings are scheduled in Vienna next week.
Throughout February, oil markets reacted strongly to developments around Iran. In particular, the United States deployed military assets to the region and warned of possible action if Tehran rejects a deal.
Analysts at ING said the military buildup increases the risk of escalation. Consequently, markets are pricing in a sizable risk premium, possibly as high as $10 per barrel.
ANZ analysts noted wide uncertainty in future supply balances. They estimate global supply could range from 10 million barrels per day lower to 1 million barrels higher, depending on the outcome of negotiations.
They added that the Strait of Hormuz remains the key concern. Any sustained disruption there could trigger sharp price spikes. However, temporary disruptions would likely cause only short-lived rallies. OPEC may also raise output to offset supply losses.
Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping route. Iran controls its northern coastline. Therefore, any conflict involving Iran could disrupt tanker traffic and amplify supply risks.
Venezuela’s Oil Exports Expand Under U.S. Deal
In contrast, supply from Venezuela is rising. U.S. officials said oil sales tied to a Washington-Caracas agreement could total $2 billion by the end of February.
Earlier this year, Washington took control of Venezuela’s oil industry after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces.
Since then, Venezuela has increased production. Major trading houses Vitol and Trafigura now handle much of the country’s crude marketing.
Buyers in Asia and Europe, including India, are expected to receive Venezuelan cargoes in the coming weeks.
The return of Venezuelan barrels adds to global supply. As a result, prices may face pressure later this year. Concerns about oversupply in 2026 have already weighed on crude benchmarks.
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