Key Moments
- UBS increased its copper price forecasts by $500 per metric ton across all time horizons.
- The bank now expects copper to reach $15,000 per metric ton by the end of March 2027.
- Deficit projections were revised to approximately 200,000 metric tons for 2025 and 520,000 metric tons for 2026.
Forecast Upgrade and Price Target
Investing.com – UBS has raised its copper price projections by $500 per metric ton for every period in its forecast horizon and now anticipates that prices will rise to $15,000 per metric ton by the end of March 2027. The bank continues to hold a constructive stance on the metal and is recommending that investors keep long exposure to copper.
Market Dynamics and Near-Term Consolidation
UBS expects copper to post year-on-year price gains even as it remains cautious in the short term. The recent rally in copper has stalled, and the bank sees current elevated price levels persisting through 2026. It notes that seasonal slowdowns in activity around the Chinese Lunar New Year are contributing to a phase of price consolidation.
Revised Supply-Demand Balance
The bank has refreshed its supply and demand assumptions using the latest data and has adjusted its deficit estimates accordingly. For 2025, UBS now projects a supply shortfall of about 200,000 metric tons, down from its earlier estimate of 230,000 metric tons.
Looking to 2026, UBS has raised its anticipated deficit to 520,000 metric tons, compared with its previous projection of 407,000 metric tons. The expanded gap between supply and demand is a key factor supporting the firm’s optimistic price outlook for copper.
| Year | Previous Deficit Forecast (metric tons) | Revised Deficit Forecast (metric tons) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 230,000 | Approximately 200,000 |
| 2026 | 407,000 | 520,000 |
Investment Strategy and Long Position Recommendation
UBS is advising clients to stay long copper, citing the updated supply and demand backdrop as the basis for this recommendation. The bank’s revised projections point to sustained, elevated price levels through 2026, reinforcing its bullish strategic view on the industrial metal.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
