USD Strength Pressures Rupee as USD/INR Breaks Higher

Key Moments

The US dollar is gaining against major currencies as strong US data and US-Iran tensions support demand.
The Indian Rupee, despite recent support from a US-India trade deal and easing tariff concerns, is resuming its broader downtrend.
USDINR has broken above resistance near 91.00, with buyers eyeing 93.00 while monitoring US data and a Supreme Court tariff ruling.

USD: Data Strength and Policy Expectations Support the Greenback

The US dollar is trading higher against most major currencies after another round of robust economic data. In addition, ongoing US-Iran tensions are reinforcing safe-haven demand.

Markets still price in 57 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end. However, bearish positioning in the dollar means further declines now require a clear catalyst.

At present, such a catalyst is absent. US data continues to exceed expectations, while Federal Reserve officials signal a high bar for easing. They want clearer improvement in inflation before considering rate cuts.

Today’s focus is on Flash US PMIs and Q4 GDP. Strong PMI figures could lift the dollar further. Meanwhile, markets are watching a potential US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. A decision against the tariffs could weigh on the dollar by improving global growth sentiment.

INR: Short-Term Tailwinds Fade Within a Longer-Term Bearish Structure

The Indian Rupee remains in a broader bearish trend against the US dollar. Nevertheless, recent progress on tariffs and inflation provided temporary support.

The US and India reached a trade agreement, and President Trump reduced tariffs from 25% to 18%. This development helped stabilize the currency in the short term.

The Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. Meanwhile, inflation rose to 2.75% in January from 1.33% in December, returning to the 2–6% tolerance band around the 4% target. As a result, rate cuts are unlikely for now.

However, the Rupee’s downtrend is reasserting itself as positive news becomes priced in. Attention has shifted to the upcoming Supreme Court decision. A ruling against the tariffs could trigger a meaningful Rupee rally. If the Court upholds them, the impact may be limited because markets have already adjusted.

USDINR Daily Chart: Consolidation Near Channel Support Gives Way to Upside Momentum

On the daily timeframe, USDINR has been consolidating near the lower boundary of a channel. Dip buyers continue to position for a move toward the upper boundary near 93.00. As a result, bullish momentum is strengthening after a breakout on lower timeframes.

Sellers seeking control need a decisive move below the channel support. Such a break would open the door to fresh lows, with 89.50 as the initial downside objective.

Timeframe	Key Technical Zone	Bias	Implication
Daily	Channel support / 93.00 upper bound	Emerging bullish momentum	Buyers target upper channel; a break below exposes 89.50
4 Hour	91.00 former resistance, now support	Bullish above 91.00	Buyers aim for 93.00; sellers want a drop back below 91.00
1 Hour	Minor upward trendline support	Short-term bullish structure	Break below trendline could trigger renewed selling

USDINR 4-Hour Chart: Break Above 91.00 Shifts Focus to 93.00

On the 4-hour chart, USDINR has pushed above resistance near 91.00. The breakout attracted fresh buying, shifting focus to the 93.00 level.

If price pulls back toward 91.00, now support, buyers may re-enter with risk managed below that zone. Conversely, sellers need a sustained move back under support to build short positions and target the channel’s lower boundary.

USDINR 1-Hour Chart: Intraday Trendline Underpins Bullish Tone

On the 1-hour timeframe, a minor upward trendline supports current momentum. A retracement into this zone could attract buyers, with stops placed just below the trendline.

Meanwhile, sellers are likely to respond to downside breaks by adding positions. Their primary target remains the lower boundary of the broader channel.