Key Moments
- Standard Chartered cut its near-term targets, seeing Bitcoin potentially falling to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 in the coming months.
- The bank estimates Bitcoin ETF holdings have declined by almost 100,000 coins from their October 2025 peak, with average purchase prices around $90,000.
- Despite the downgrade, Standard Chartered still projects Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000 by the end of 2026, with long-term targets through 2030 unchanged.
StanChart Turns Cautious on Near-Term Crypto Outlook
Investing.com — Standard Chartered has reduced its short-term projections for major digital assets, signaling expectations of additional weakness before a rebound later this year.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, described the latest trading environment as “challenging, to say the least,” and indicated that he anticipates further downside in the months ahead.
“We expect further price capitulation in the next few months,” he said, forecasting that Bitcoin could retreat to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400.
Market Resilience and ETF Positioning
Kendrick noted that the recent sell-off has been milder than the downturn in 2022 and has not resulted in the collapse of major platforms. He wrote that this pattern suggests “that the asset class is maturing and becoming more resilient.”
He highlighted that holdings in digital asset exchange-traded funds have been declining in an “orderly manner,” with the average Bitcoin ETF position now down about 25%. According to his estimates, Bitcoin ETF holdings have fallen by nearly 100,000 coins from their October 2025 peak.
With an average ETF entry level around $90,000, Kendrick observed that many participants are sitting on “sharp unrealised loss territory.” In this context, he argued that ETF investors are currently “more likely to sell, rather than buy the dip, for now.”
Projected Downside Levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Against this backdrop, Kendrick sees scope for additional pressure on prices. He believes Bitcoin could slide to, or slightly below, $50,000 over the next few months. If that scenario plays out, he expects Ethereum could find a floor near $1,400.
| Asset | Potential Near-Term Low | Revised End-2026 Target | Previous End-2026 Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $50,000 | $100,000 | $150,000 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1,400 | $4,000 | $7,500 |
Macro Headwinds and Policy Uncertainty
On the macro front, Kendrick sees the environment as unsupportive for digital assets. He pointed to mixed U.S. economic indicators and said that markets are pricing in no rate cuts before a change in Federal Reserve leadership in June, which, in his view, leaves cryptocurrencies exposed to softer capital flows.
Longer-Term View Remains Constructive
Despite trimming near-term expectations, Standard Chartered continues to hold a positive stance on the asset class over a longer horizon.
“Once the lows have been reached, we expect the asset class to recover for the rest of 2026,” Kendrick said in the note.
He now anticipates Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026, down from a prior projection of $150,000, and sees Ethereum at $4,000, versus an earlier estimate of $7,500. Kendrick added that the bank’s long-term targets through 2030 remain unchanged.
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